arXiv:2508.12300cs.CYcs.AI2025-08被引 1

放弃安全监管无法带来竞争优势,反而加剧全球风险。

Mutually Assured Deregulation

  • 以牺牲安全监管换取技术领先是错误策略,中美模型差距已从9%缩至2%
  • 强监管反而促进创新,清晰规则降低企业不确定性与投资风险
  • 无监管竞赛将催生信息战工具、生物武器和不可控的通用人工智能

自2022年以来,各国政策制定者普遍采纳‘监管牺牲’理念,认为取消安全监管可实现人工智能优势。然而,这种做法存在致命缺陷:尽管人工智能带来国家安全挑战,解决之道应是强化而非弱化监管。缺乏护栏的竞争只会制造共同危险,而非竞争优势。‘监管牺牲’承诺三大虚假前景:第一,承诺持久技术领先,但中美系统性能差距在13个月内从9%降至2%,短期优势迅速消散;第二,声称去监管加速创新,实则相反,良好治理常简化开发,合规市场吸引投资;第三,宣称通过去监管提升安全,实际在近、中、长期均削弱安全——短期助长信息战工具,中期推动生物武器民主化,长期必然导致不可控的通用人工智能部署。该趋势源于强大利益集团推动,非出于安全考量。科技公司倾向免责,政客偏好简单叙事,形成‘相互保证去监管’格局,各国竞速反而集体暴露于风险之中。唯有不参与,才能真正获胜。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We have convinced ourselves that the way to make AI safe is to make it unsafe. Since 2022, policymakers worldwide have embraced the Regulation Sacrifice - the belief that dismantling safety oversight will deliver security through AI dominance. Fearing China or USA will gain advantage, nations rush to eliminate safeguards that might slow progress. This Essay reveals the fatal flaw: though AI poses national security challenges, the solution demands stronger regulatory frameworks, not weaker ones. A race without guardrails breeds shared danger, not competitive strength. The Regulation Sacrifice makes three false promises. First, it promises durable technological leads. But AI capabilities spread rapidly - performance gaps between U.S. and Chinese systems collapsed from 9 percent to 2 percent in thirteen months. When advantages evaporate in months, sacrificing permanent safety for temporary speed makes no sense. Second, it promises deregulation accelerates innovation. The opposite often proves true. Companies report well-designed governance streamlines development. Investment flows toward regulated markets. Clear rules reduce uncertainty; uncertain liability creates paralysis. Environmental standards did not kill the auto industry; they created Tesla and BYD. Third, enhanced national security through deregulation actually undermines security across all timeframes. Near term: it hands adversaries information warfare tools. Medium term: it democratizes bioweapon capabilities. Long term: it guarantees deployment of uncontrollable AGI systems. The Regulation Sacrifice persists because it serves powerful interests, not security. Tech companies prefer freedom to accountability. Politicians prefer simple stories to complex truths. This creates mutually assured deregulation, where each nation's sprint for advantage guarantees collective vulnerability. The only way to win is not to play.

AI安全监管政策国家战略

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