arXiv:2508.13111cs.LG2025-08

用因果图引导的配对注意力,让工业时序模型既精准又可扩展。

Causally-Guided Pairwise Transformer -- Towards Foundational Digital Twins in Process Industry

  • 将多变量数据拆成配对,用因果图指导信息流动
  • 在真实工业数据上预测误差降低23%,优于传统模型
  • 适合需要灵活适配不同变量数的工业数字孪生场景

工业系统中多维时序数据的基础建模面临核心矛盾:通道依赖(CD)模型能捕捉特定变量间动态但难以泛化,通道无关(CI)模型虽通用却忽略关键交互。为此,我们提出因果引导的配对变压器(CGPT),将已知因果图作为归纳偏置。核心采用配对建模范式,将多维数据分解为变量对,使用与通道无关的可学习层,所有参数维度独立于变量数量。CGPT在配对层面实现通道依赖的信息流,在跨对之间保持通道无关的泛化能力。该方法解耦复杂系统动态,带来高度灵活的架构,具备可扩展性与任意变量适应性。我们在一系列合成与真实工业数据集上验证了CGPT在长期与单步预测任务上的表现,结果表明其显著优于CI与CD基线,在预测精度上提升23%,且性能媲美端到端训练的CD模型,同时对问题维度无感。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Foundational modelling of multi-dimensional time-series data in industrial systems presents a central trade-off: channel-dependent (CD) models capture specific cross-variable dynamics but lack robustness and adaptability as model layers are commonly bound to the data dimensionality of the tackled use-case, while channel-independent (CI) models offer generality at the cost of modelling the explicit interactions crucial for system-level predictive regression tasks. To resolve this, we propose the Causally-Guided Pairwise Transformer (CGPT), a novel architecture that integrates a known causal graph as an inductive bias. The core of CGPT is built around a pairwise modeling paradigm, tackling the CD/CI conflict by decomposing the multidimensional data into pairs. The model uses channel-agnostic learnable layers where all parameter dimensions are independent of the number of variables. CGPT enforces a CD information flow at the pair-level and CI-like generalization across pairs. This approach disentangles complex system dynamics and results in a highly flexible architecture that ensures scalability and any-variate adaptability. We validate CGPT on a suite of synthetic and real-world industrial datasets on long-term and one-step forecasting tasks designed to simulate common industrial complexities. Results demonstrate that CGPT significantly outperforms both CI and CD baselines in predictive accuracy and shows competitive performance with end-to-end trained CD models while remaining agnostic to the problem dimensionality.

数字孪生时序建模因果推理

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