arXiv:2508.13434cs.LGcs.AI2025-08中稿 · the 35th Internati…被引 2

用事件感知的扩散模型,提升非平稳时间序列预测精度。

EventTSF: Event-Aware Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting

  • 构建自回归扩散框架,融合时间序列与文本事件的细粒度交互。
  • 事件感知的采样策略使去噪难度更均衡,提升预测稳定性。
  • 在7个数据集上平均提升41.3%概率预测和27.5%确定性预测性能。

时间序列预测在能源、交通等领域至关重要,但非平稳动态常与跨模态外部事件(如文本)紧密相关。现有方法多依赖单一模态,难以有效利用上下文信息。本文提出事件感知非平稳时间序列预测(EventTSF),一种自回归扩散框架,通过分步扩散融合历史时序与文本事件。为解决均匀扩散步长忽略事件引发的非平稳性问题,引入基于事件语义的事件感知流匹配采样。在7个合成与真实数据集上的实验表明,EventTSF超越12种基线,在概率预测上平均提升41.3%,确定性预测提升27.5%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is vital in diverse sectors such as energy and transportation, where non-stationary dynamics are deeply intertwined with external events in other modalities such as texts. However, incorporating natural language-based external events to improve non-stationary forecasting remains largely unexplored, as most approaches still rely on a single modality, resulting in limited contextual knowledge and model underperformance. Enabling fine-grained multimodal interactions between temporal and textual data is challenged by two fundamental issues: (1) the gap in modeling interactions among discrete external events and continuous time series in a unified framework; (2) classical uniform diffusion timestep ignores event-induced non-stationary variability, leading to imbalanced denoising difficulty across diffusion stages. In this work, we propose event-aware non-stationary time series forecasting (EventTSF), an autoregressive diffusion framework that integrates historical time series and textual events via step-wise diffusion. To mitigate the imbalanced denoising difficulty of uniform timestep sampling, EventTSF uses an event-aware flow-matching timestep conditioned on event semantics. Extensive experiments on 7 synthetic and real-world datasets show that EventTSF outperforms 12 non-stationary time series forecasting baselines, achieving average gains of 41.3% in probabilistic forecasting and 27.5% in deterministic forecasting across all evaluation metrics.

时间序列事件感知扩散模型多模态

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