用混合模型预测医院与社区的耐药菌传播,提升准确性和可解释性。
CALYPSO: Forecasting and Analyzing MRSA Infection Patterns with Community and Healthcare Transmission Dynamics
- 结合神经网络与机制模型,融合医保、通勤和医疗转移数据学习传播参数。
- 在州级预测上比纯机器学习模型提升超4.5%,支持多尺度预报。
- 可识别高风险区域,指导资源分配,适合公共卫生决策者使用。
耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌(MRSA)是医院及长期护理机构中的重大公共卫生威胁。更深入理解MRSA风险、评估干预措施并预测感染率对公共健康至关重要。现有预测模型多依赖统计或神经网络方法,缺乏流行病学可解释性且性能有限;而机制型流行病模型难以校准,难以整合多样数据。本文提出CALYPSO,一种融合神经网络与机制元群体模型的混合框架,用于捕捉传染病(如MRSA)在医疗与社区环境间的传播动态。该模型利用患者级医保记录、通勤数据及医疗转诊模式,学习区域与时间相关的传播参数,实现县、医疗机构、地区、州等多空间尺度的精准可解释预测,并支持感染控制政策的反事实分析与暴发风险评估。结果表明,相比机器学习基线,CALYPSO在州级预测性能提升超过4.5%,同时能识别高风险区域,并提出成本效益高的感染防控资源配置策略。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a critical public health threat within hospitals as well as long-term care facilities. Better understanding of MRSA risks, evaluation of interventions and forecasting MRSA rates are important public health problems. Existing forecasting models rely on statistical or neural network approaches, which lack epidemiological interpretability, and have limited performance. Mechanistic epidemic models are difficult to calibrate and limited in incorporating diverse datasets. We present CALYPSO, a hybrid framework that integrates neural networks with mechanistic metapopulation models to capture the spread dynamics of infectious diseases (i.e., MRSA) across healthcare and community settings. Our model leverages patient-level insurance claims, commuting data, and healthcare transfer patterns to learn region- and time-specific parameters governing MRSA spread. This enables accurate, interpretable forecasts at multiple spatial resolutions (county, healthcare facility, region, state) and supports counterfactual analyses of infection control policies and outbreak risks. We also show that CALYPSO improves statewide forecasting performance by over 4.5% compared to machine learning baselines, while also identifying high-risk regions and cost-effective strategies for allocating infection prevention resources.
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