不依赖强假设,用边界估计因果效应,让结果更可信。
Bounding Causal Effects and Counterfactuals
- 通过统一框架比较多种边界计算方法,提升实用性。
- 提出新算法扩展熵约束法,可处理反事实问题如PNS。
- 提供决策树和预测模型,帮助研究者选最优方法。
因果推断常依赖难以验证的强假设(如无未观测混杂、完全依从性),而部分识别提供替代方案:不追求精确估计,而是基于数据不确定性推导因果效应的边界。尽管理论上有优势,但现有方法分散且缺乏实用指导。本文系统比较多种边界算法,整合符号、优化与信息论方法,在数千次随机模拟中评估其边界紧致性、计算效率与对假设违反的鲁棒性。提出熵约束法的扩展,使其适用于反事实查询(如概率必要充分性,PNS)。研究提炼出实用决策树,并训练机器学习模型根据数据特征预测最佳方法。所有代码开源,发布于 Python 包 CausalBoundingEngine,支持统一接口应用与对比。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on unverifiable assumptions to estimate causal effects precisely, it derives bounds that reflect the uncertainty inherent in the data. Despite its theoretical appeal, partial identification remains underutilized in applied work, in part due to the fragmented nature of existing methods and the lack of practical guidance. This thesis addresses these challenges by systematically comparing a diverse set of bounding algorithms across multiple causal scenarios. We implement, extend, and unify state-of-the-art methods - including symbolic, optimization-based, and information-theoretic approaches - within a common evaluation framework. In particular, we propose an extension of a recently introduced entropy-bounded method, making it applicable to counterfactual queries such as the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS). Our empirical study spans thousands of randomized simulations involving both discrete and continuous data-generating processes. We assess each method in terms of bound tightness, computational efficiency, and robustness to assumption violations. To support practitioners, we distill our findings into a practical decision tree for algorithm selection and train a machine learning model to predict the best-performing method based on observable data characteristics. All implementations are released as part of an open-source Python package, CausalBoundingEngine, which enables users to apply and compare bounding methods through a unified interface.
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