用智能体框架自动优化金融时间序列建模,提升准确率与可解释性。
Structured Agentic Workflows for Financial Time-Series Modeling with LLMs and Reflective Feedback
- 构建三阶段迭代式智能体流程:选模型、调代码、微调。
- 在多个金融数据集上优于主流AutoML和智能体基线,精度更高且过程透明。
- 适合需要可审计、高可靠性建模的金融场景,如风控与投资决策。
时间序列数据在金融市场决策中至关重要,但构建高性能、可解释且可审计的模型仍面临重大挑战。尽管自动化机器学习(AutoML)框架简化了建模流程,却常缺乏对领域需求和动态目标的适应性。与此同时,大语言模型(LLMs)推动了具备推理、记忆管理与动态代码生成能力的智能体系统发展,为流程自动化提供了新路径。本文提出 extsf{TS-Agent},一个模块化智能体框架,用于自动化并增强金融时间序列建模工作流。该智能体将建模流程形式化为三个阶段的结构化迭代决策过程:模型选择、代码优化与微调,由上下文推理与实验反馈驱动。核心在于配备结构化知识库的规划智能体,其包含精选的模型库与优化策略库,以引导探索、提升可解释性并减少误差传播。 extsf{TS-Agent} 支持自适应学习、鲁棒调试与透明审计,满足金融等高风险环境的关键需求。在多样化金融预测与合成数据生成任务上的实证评估表明, extsf{TS-Agent} 持续优于当前最优的AutoML与智能体基线,在准确性、鲁棒性与决策可追溯性方面表现更优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time-series data is central to decision-making in financial markets, yet building high-performing, interpretable, and auditable models remains a major challenge. While Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) frameworks streamline model development, they often lack adaptability and responsiveness to domain-specific needs and evolving objectives. Concurrently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled agentic systems capable of reasoning, memory management, and dynamic code generation, offering a path toward more flexible workflow automation. In this paper, we introduce \textsf{TS-Agent}, a modular agentic framework designed to automate and enhance time-series modeling workflows for financial applications. The agent formalizes the pipeline as a structured, iterative decision process across three stages: model selection, code refinement, and fine-tuning, guided by contextual reasoning and experimental feedback. Central to our architecture is a planner agent equipped with structured knowledge banks, curated libraries of models and refinement strategies, which guide exploration, while improving interpretability and reducing error propagation. \textsf{TS-Agent} supports adaptive learning, robust debugging, and transparent auditing, key requirements for high-stakes environments such as financial services. Empirical evaluations on diverse financial forecasting and synthetic data generation tasks demonstrate that \textsf{TS-Agent} consistently outperforms state-of-the-art AutoML and agentic baselines, achieving superior accuracy, robustness, and decision traceability.
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