arXiv:2508.14125cs.LGcs.AI2025-08

用地图和移动数据预测校园停车位,无需安装传感器。

A Cost-Effective Framework for Predicting Parking Availability Using Geospatial Data and Machine Learning

  • 融合地图、出行与气象数据,通过空间连接分析停车行为。
  • 随机森林模型误差最低(RMSE 0.142),R²达0.582。
  • 适合无感部署的智慧校园停车系统,尤其关注高校场景。

随着城市人口持续增长,停车管理与占用率判断面临诸多挑战,大学校园尤为突出——学生需在上课时段快速找到空位。校园停车位有限,亟需高效分配系统。本文提出一种智能框架,整合街道地图、出行轨迹与气象数据,通过空间连接操作,覆盖连续3天、每日7点至15点每小时的数据,捕捉停车行为与车辆移动模式。系统不依赖道路或停车场内安装传感设备,所有数据均来自位置服务。基于预期入位时间与地点,推荐合适停车区域。对比评估了线性回归、支持向量回归(SVR)、随机森林回归(RFR)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)四种模型。采用网格搜索进行超参数调优,使用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)与决定系数(R²)评估性能。结果显示,随机森林回归取得最低RMSE(0.142)与最高R²(0.582)。考虑到任务的时间序列特性,未来增加数据量与更长时序输入后,LSTM可能表现更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As urban populations continue to grow, cities face numerous challenges in managing parking and determining occupancy. This issue is particularly pronounced in university campuses, where students need to find vacant parking spots quickly and conveniently during class timings. The limited availability of parking spaces on campuses underscores the necessity of implementing efficient systems to allocate vacant parking spots effectively. We propose a smart framework that integrates multiple data sources, including street maps, mobility, and meteorological data, through a spatial join operation to capture parking behavior and vehicle movement patterns over the span of 3 consecutive days with an hourly duration between 7AM till 3PM. The system will not require any sensing tools to be installed in the street or in the parking area to provide its services since all the data needed will be collected using location services. The framework will use the expected parking entrance and time to specify a suitable parking area. Several forecasting models, namely, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are evaluated. Hyperparameter tuning was employed using grid search, and model performance is assessed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). Random Forest Regression achieved the lowest RMSE of 0.142 and highest R2 of 0.582. However, given the time-series nature of the task, an LSTM model may perform better with additional data and longer timesteps.

停车预测时空建模机器学习

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