arXiv:2508.14615cs.LGstat.ML2025-08

提出新方法量化相似性选择中的无关选项独立性违反程度。

Measuring IIA Violations in Similarity Choices with Bayesian Models

  • 用贝叶斯后验预测检验法量化IIA违反程度,超越传统显著性判断。
  • 在两个数据集上均发现显著且程度相当的IIA违反,表明其非随机性。
  • 结果揭示违反源于选择集内部互动,适合研究人类决策机制者阅读。

相似性选择数据指人类根据选项与目标的相似性做出选择,常见于信息检索和嵌入学习场景。经典度量模型假设无关选项独立性(IIA),但该假设在相似性选择中尚未充分验证。由于目标依赖性,传统测试方法难以应用。本文提出两种检验IIA的方法:经典拟合优度检验与基于后验预测检查(PPC)的贝叶斯方法。后者为本文主要技术贡献,可量化违反程度而非仅判断显著性。我们构建了两个数据集:一个设计用于诱发IIA违反,另一个由相同项目池随机生成。两组数据均检测到显著的IIA违反,且违反程度相当。此外,我们开发了一种新的PPC检验人口同质性,结果显示群体具同质性,表明违规由上下文效应驱动——即选择集内部的相互作用所致。这些结果凸显了需建立考虑上下文效应的新相似性选择模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Similarity choice data occur when humans make choices among alternatives based on their similarity to a target, e.g., in the context of information retrieval and in embedding learning settings. Classical metric-based models of similarity choice assume independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA), a property that allows for a simpler formulation. While IIA violations have been detected in many discrete choice settings, the similarity choice setting has received scant attention. This is because the target-dependent nature of the choice complicates IIA testing. We propose two statistical methods to test for IIA: a classical goodness-of-fit test and a Bayesian counterpart based on the framework of Posterior Predictive Checks (PPC). This Bayesian approach, our main technical contribution, quantifies the degree of IIA violation beyond its mere significance. We curate two datasets: one with choice sets designed to elicit IIA violations, and another with randomly generated choice sets from the same item universe. Our tests confirmed significant IIA violations on both datasets, and notably, we find a comparable degree of violation between them. Further, we devise a new PPC test for population homogeneity. Results show that the population is indeed homogenous, suggesting that the IIA violations are driven by context effects -- specifically, interactions within the choice sets. These results highlight the need for new similarity choice models that account for such context effects.

决策建模贝叶斯方法心理实验

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