用模糊逻辑+AI解释飞行下降效率,让航空决策更透明可信。
A Fuzzy-Enhanced Explainable AI Framework for Flight Continuous Descent Operations Classification
- 结合模糊逻辑与SHAP分析,构建可解释的飞行下降分类框架。
- 模型准确率超90%,识别出3个关键影响因素:下降速率、段数和航向变化。
- 生成人类可读规则,适合空管和航空公司做实时运行支持。
连续下降运行(CDO)通过平滑、零推力下降避免平飞,减少燃油消耗、排放和噪音,提升效率与乘客舒适度。尽管其效益显著,但影响CDO表现的因素尚缺乏系统研究。现有轨迹优化方法在航空领域普遍缺乏透明性,而安全性与信任依赖可解释性。为此,本文提出融合模糊逻辑与机器学习及SHAP分析的可解释AI框架(FEXAI)。基于1,094架次航班的ADS-B数据,构建包含11项运行特征与18项气象特征的29维数据集。采用机器学习模型与SHAP分析对飞行CDO符合度进行分类,并排序特征重要性。结果显示,平均下降率、下降段数与下降过程中的平均航向变化是三大最强预测因子。进一步以前三者构建模糊规则分类器,生成可理解的可解释规则。所有模型分类准确率均高于90%,FEXAI框架提供面向操作人员的人类可读规则,为航空运行决策支持提供新路径,可嵌入工具实现复杂条件下的实时CDO合规建议。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Continuous Descent Operations (CDO) involve smooth, idle-thrust descents that avoid level-offs, reducing fuel burn, emissions, and noise while improving efficiency and passenger comfort. Despite its operational and environmental benefits, limited research has systematically examined the factors influencing CDO performance. Moreover, many existing methods in related areas, such as trajectory optimization, lack the transparency required in aviation, where explainability is critical for safety and stakeholder trust. This study addresses these gaps by proposing a Fuzzy-Enhanced Explainable AI (FEXAI) framework that integrates fuzzy logic with machine learning and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. For this purpose, a comprehensive dataset of 29 features, including 11 operational and 18 weather-related features, was collected from 1,094 flights using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data. Machine learning models and SHAP were then applied to classify flights' CDO adherence levels and rank features by importance. The three most influential features, as identified by SHAP scores, were then used to construct a fuzzy rule-based classifier, enabling the extraction of interpretable fuzzy rules. All models achieved classification accuracies above 90%, with FEXAI providing meaningful, human-readable rules for operational users. Results indicated that the average descent rate within the arrival route, the number of descent segments, and the average change in directional heading during descent were the strongest predictors of CDO performance. The FEXAI method proposed in this study presents a novel pathway for operational decision support and could be integrated into aviation tools to enable real-time advisories that maintain CDO adherence under varying operational conditions.
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