arXiv:2508.14942cs.LG2025-08被引 12

融合症状结构与时间动态,精准预测帕金森病进展阶段

Structure-Aware Temporal Modeling for Chronic Disease Progression Prediction

  • 用图神经网络建模症状间结构关系,结合Transformer捕捉时间演化
  • 在帕金森病数据上实现AUC、RMSE、IPW-F1三指标领先
  • 适合关注慢性病个性化轨迹建模的研究者和临床医生

本研究针对帕金森病进展预测中症状演变复杂与时间依赖建模不足的问题,提出统一预测框架,融合结构感知与时间建模。方法利用图神经网络刻画多模态临床症状间的结构关系,引入基于图的表示以捕获症状间的语义依赖;同时采用Transformer架构建模疾病进展中的动态时序特征。为融合结构与时间信息,设计结构感知门控机制,动态调节结构编码与时间特征的融合权重,提升关键进展阶段识别能力。框架包含图构建模块、时序编码模块与预测输出层的多组件建模流程。在真实纵向帕金森病数据上评估,实验对比主流模型,进行超参数敏感性分析及图连接密度控制。结果表明,所提方法在AUC、RMSE、IPW-F1指标上均优于现有方法,有效区分疾病进展阶段,增强个性化症状轨迹建模能力。整体框架具备强泛化性与结构可扩展性,为帕金森病等慢性进行性疾病智能建模提供可靠支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study addresses the challenges of symptom evolution complexity and insufficient temporal dependency modeling in Parkinson's disease progression prediction. It proposes a unified prediction framework that integrates structural perception and temporal modeling. The method leverages graph neural networks to model the structural relationships among multimodal clinical symptoms and introduces graph-based representations to capture semantic dependencies between symptoms. It also incorporates a Transformer architecture to model dynamic temporal features during disease progression. To fuse structural and temporal information, a structure-aware gating mechanism is designed to dynamically adjust the fusion weights between structural encodings and temporal features, enhancing the model's ability to identify key progression stages. To improve classification accuracy and stability, the framework includes a multi-component modeling pipeline, consisting of a graph construction module, a temporal encoding module, and a prediction output layer. The model is evaluated on real-world longitudinal Parkinson's disease data. The experiments involve comparisons with mainstream models, sensitivity analysis of hyperparameters, and graph connection density control. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches in AUC, RMSE, and IPW-F1 metrics. It effectively distinguishes progression stages and improves the model's ability to capture personalized symptom trajectories. The overall framework demonstrates strong generalization and structural scalability, providing reliable support for intelligent modeling of chronic progressive diseases such as Parkinson's disease.

帕金森病时间建模图神经网络个性化预测

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