通过建模未来时空上下文,提升轨迹预测模型对非日常活动的准确性。
STRelay: A Universal Spatio-Temporal Relaying Framework for Location Prediction over Human Trajectory Data
- 设计分阶段的未来时空上下文建模框架,逐步预测时间、距离与位置
- 在4个真实数据集上,提升5种主流模型性能2.49%~11.30%
- 特别擅长预测娱乐类地点和长距离出行者,弥补常规模型不足
下一步位置预测是人类移动建模中的关键任务,广泛应用于出行规划与城市交通管理。现有方法主要依赖历史时空轨迹训练序列模型直接预测未来位置,但常忽略未来时空上下文的丰富信息。例如,用户将耗时多久、移动多远,可为预测下个位置提供关键线索。针对此问题,我们提出STRelay——一种通用的时空接力框架,显式建模给定轨迹下的未来时空上下文,以增强各类位置预测模型的表现。具体而言,STRelay以接力方式建模未来时空上下文,并与基础模型编码的历史表示融合,实现多任务学习:同时预测下一个时间间隔、下一个移动距离区间及最终位置。我们在四个真实轨迹数据集上,将STRelay集成至五种先进位置预测模型进行评估。结果表明,其在所有场景中均持续提升性能2.49%~11.30%。此外,发现未来时空上下文对娱乐类地点及偏好长距离出行的用户尤为有效。此类非日常活动通常不确定性更高,而该框架带来的增益恰好补充了传统模型在规律性日常行为建模上的优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Next location prediction is a critical task in human mobility modeling, enabling applications like travel planning and urban mobility management. Existing methods mainly rely on historical spatiotemporal trajectory data to train sequence models that directly forecast future locations. However, they often overlook the importance of the future spatiotemporal contexts, which are highly informative for the future locations. For example, knowing how much time and distance a user will travel could serve as a critical clue for predicting the user's next location. Against this background, we propose \textbf{STRelay}, a universal \textbf{\underline{S}}patio\textbf{\underline{T}}emporal \textbf{\underline{Relay}}ing framework explicitly modeling the future spatiotemporal context given a human trajectory, to boost the performance of different location prediction models. Specifically, STRelay models future spatiotemporal contexts in a relaying manner, which is subsequently integrated with the encoded historical representation from a base location prediction model, enabling multi-task learning by simultaneously predicting the next time interval, next moving distance interval, and finally the next location. We evaluate STRelay integrated with five state-of-the-art location prediction base models on four real-world trajectory datasets. Results demonstrate that STRelay consistently improves prediction performance across all cases by 2.49\%-11.30\%. Additionally, we find that the future spatiotemporal contexts are particularly helpful for entertainment-related locations and also for user groups who prefer traveling longer distances. The performance gain on such non-daily-routine activities, which often suffer from higher uncertainty, is indeed complementary to the base location prediction models that often excel at modeling regular daily routine patterns.
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