arXiv:2508.16686cs.LGstat.ME2025-08被引 1

提出可建模空间相关性的多维神经网络不确定性输出方法。

Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super-Resolution of Surface Wind Speed

  • 用多维高斯损失训练网络,生成带协方差结构的预测分布。
  • 在风速超分辨率任务中实现高精度不确定性量化,提升预测可靠性。
  • 适合需要可靠置信度估计的气象、气候等科学预测场景。

神经网络预测中的不确定性准确量化仍是涉及高维相关数据的科学应用中的核心挑战。现有方法通常只能捕捉偶然性或认知性不确定性,很少能提供闭式解的多维分布,同时保持空间相关性且计算可行。本文提出一种基于多维高斯损失的神经网络训练框架,生成输出的闭式预测分布,具有非同分布和异方差结构。通过迭代估计均值与协方差矩阵来捕捉偶然性不确定性,并利用协方差矩阵的傅里叶表示稳定训练过程并保留空间相关性。引入一种新型正则化策略——信息共享,介于图像特定与全局协方差估计之间,使基于图像特定分布损失函数的超分辨率降尺度网络得以收敛。该框架支持高效采样、显式相关建模,并可扩展至更复杂分布族,且不损害预测性能。我们在地表风速降尺度任务中验证了该方法,讨论其在科学模型不确定性感知预测中的广泛适用性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating closed-form predictive distributions over outputs with non-identically distributed and heteroscedastic structure. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy -- referred to as information sharing -- that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.

不确定性量化超分辨率风速预测

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