arXiv:2508.17090stat.MLcs.LG2025-08中稿 · the Symposium on P…

让心理风险模型的动态变化始终在合理范围内,提升预测可信度。

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations on Compact State Spaces: Theory, Methods, and Application to Suicide Risk Modeling

  • 设计可保证状态不越界的神经随机微分方程,解决传统模型越界问题
  • 在真实自杀风险数据上,预测准确率和训练稳定性显著优于基线方法
  • 适合高风险临床时间序列建模,也适用于有严格状态限制的其他领域

生态瞬时评估(EMA)研究通过智能手机高频收集自杀念头与行为(STBs)自报数据。潜在随机微分方程(SDE)是建模此类数据的有力工具,因其具有非均匀采样、噪声大、部分观测等特点。但现有SDE模型存在两大缺陷:(a) 常违反定义域约束,影响科学合理性与临床信任;(b) 训练数值不稳定,需人为简化动力学,不适用于高风险场景。本文提出一类新型表达能力强的SDE,其解被严格限定在预设的紧致多面体状态空间内,符合EMA数据域特征。我们首先理论与实证证明基于链式法则的构造方式在紧致域上失效;其次推导一般与平稳SDE的漂移与扩散约束条件,确保解始终在目标域内;最后引入参数化方法,将任意神经或专家设定的动力学映射为满足约束的SDE。在多个真实EMA数据集(包括大规模自杀风险研究)上,该方法显著提升预测性能与优化稳定性,优于标准潜变量神经SDE基线。本工作为自杀风险等临床时间序列建立了可解释、可信赖的连续时间建模基础,并将基于SDE的方法拓展至具刚性状态约束的领域。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) studies enable the collection of high-frequency self-reports of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs) via smartphones. Latent stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a promising model class for EMA data, as it is irregularly sampled, noisy, and partially observed. But SDE-based models suffer from two key limitations. (a) These models often violate domain constraints, undermining scientific validity and clinical trust of the model. (b) Training is numerically unstable without ad hoc fixes (e.g. oversimplified dynamics) that are ill-suited for high-stakes applications. Here, we develop a novel class of expressive SDEs whose solutions are provably confined to a prescribed compact polyhedral state space, matching the domains of EMA data. In this work, (1) we show why chain-rule based constructions of SDEs on compact domains fail, theoretically and empirically; (2) we derive constraints on drift and diffusion for general and stationary SDEs so their solutions remain in the desired state space; and (3), we introduce a parameterization that maps arbitrary (neural or expert-given) dynamics into constraint-satisfying SDEs. On several real EMA datasets, including a large suicide-risk study, our parameterization improves forecasts and optimization dynamics over standard latent neural SDE baselines. These contributions pave the way for principled, trustworthy continuous-time models of suicide risk and other clinical time series and extend applications of SDE-based methods (e.g. diffusion models) to domains with hard state constraints.

随机微分方程心理健康连续建模

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