arXiv:2508.18284cs.LGcs.AI2025-08

融合物理模型与多模态数据,实现海上漂浮物长期精准轨迹预测。

Multi-Modal Drift Forecasting of Leeway Objects via Navier-Stokes-Guided CNN and Sequence-to-Sequence Attention-Based Models

  • 用纳维-斯托克斯模拟生成图像训练CNN,估算物体阻力系数。
  • 结合力、环境、物体特征与文本描述,实现10秒内轨迹预测。
  • 支持不同物体泛化,适合搜救等紧急场景实时决策。

准确预测海上漂浮物在动态环境中的漂移(位移)仍是关键挑战,尤其在搜救等时效性强的场景中。本文提出一种多模态机器学习框架,整合句子嵌入与基于注意力的序列到序列模型,预测漂浮物的漂移轨迹。通过实验采集五种不同漂浮物的水流动速度、风速、质量与表面积等数据。利用基于纳维-斯托克斯(Navier-Stokes)的模拟数据训练卷积神经网络(CNN),从几何图像表示中估计物体的阻力与升力系数,进而推导驱动运动的合力。将所得时间序列(包含物理力、环境速度、物体特征)与经语言模型编码的文本描述共同输入注意力机制的LSTM与Transformer序列模型,以预测未来漂移路径。在1、3、5、10秒多个时间尺度上评估模型性能,并测试其对不同物体的泛化能力。对比传统物理模型及循环神经网络(RNN)、时序卷积网络(TCN)等方法,结果表明该多模态模型表现相当,且可实现多步长期预测,优于单步预测。研究证明,该多模态策略能在动态海况下提供高精度、强适应性的漂移预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately predicting the drift (displacement) of leeway objects in maritime environments remains a critical challenge, particularly in time-sensitive scenarios such as search and rescue operations. In this study, we propose a multi-modal machine learning framework that integrates Sentence Transformer embeddings with attention-based sequence-to-sequence architectures to predict the drift of leeway objects in water. We begin by experimentally collecting environmental and physical data, including water current and wind velocities, object mass, and surface area, for five distinct leeway objects. Using simulated data from a Navier-Stokes-based model to train a convolutional neural network on geometrical image representations, we estimate drag and lift coefficients of the leeway objects. These coefficients are then used to derive the net forces responsible for driving the objects' motion. The resulting time series, comprising physical forces, environmental velocities, and object-specific features, combined with textual descriptions encoded via a language model, are inputs to attention-based sequence-to-sequence long-short-term memory and Transformer models, to predict future drift trajectories. We evaluate the framework across multiple time horizons ($1$, $3$, $5$, and $10$ seconds) and assess its generalization across different objects. We compare our approach against a fitted physics-based model and traditional machine learning methods, including recurrent neural networks and temporal convolutional neural networks. Our results show that these multi-modal models perform comparably to traditional models while also enabling longer-term forecasting in place of single-step prediction. Overall, our findings demonstrate the ability of a multi-modal modeling strategy to provide accurate and adaptable predictions of leeway object drift in dynamic maritime conditions.

海洋漂移多模态建模轨迹预测物理引导

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。