arXiv:2508.19016cs.LG2025-08

从资源视角预测下一步操作,提升工作分配与人员规划效率。

Working My Way Back to You: Resource-Centric Next-Activity Prediction

  • 以资源为中心建模,融合活动转移与重复特征编码
  • 2-gram编码结合重复特征使准确率最高,优于基线模型
  • 适合需优化人力调度与员工支持的流程管理系统

预测性流程监控(PPM)旨在训练模型以预测流程执行中的下一步事件,支持早期瓶颈识别、调度优化、主动干预和利益相关者沟通。现有研究多从控制流角度出发,本文从资源视角探索下一步活动预测,可带来工作组织优化、负载均衡和容量预测等优势。尽管资源信息已被证明有助于流程绩效分析,其在下一步活动预测中的作用尚未被研究。本研究在四个真实数据集上评估四种模型与三种编码策略。结果表明,基于2-gram活动转移的编码下,LightGBM与Transformer表现最佳;而随机森林则在结合2-gram转移与活动重复特征的编码中受益最深。该联合编码实现最高平均准确率。此资源中心方法可实现更智能的资源分配、战略人力资源规划及个性化员工支持,通过分析个体行为而非案例级进展。研究证实了资源中心预测的潜力,为PPM开辟了新方向。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) aims to train models that forecast upcoming events in process executions. These predictions support early bottleneck detection, improved scheduling, proactive interventions, and timely communication with stakeholders. While existing research adopts a control-flow perspective, we investigate next-activity prediction from a resource-centric viewpoint, which offers additional benefits such as improved work organization, workload balancing, and capacity forecasting. Although resource information has been shown to enhance tasks such as process performance analysis, its role in next-activity prediction remains unexplored. In this study, we evaluate four prediction models and three encoding strategies across four real-life datasets. Compared to the baseline, our results show that LightGBM and Transformer models perform best with an encoding based on 2-gram activity transitions, while Random Forest benefits most from an encoding that combines 2-gram transitions and activity repetition features. This combined encoding also achieves the highest average accuracy. This resource-centric approach could enable smarter resource allocation, strategic workforce planning, and personalized employee support by analyzing individual behavior rather than case-level progression. The findings underscore the potential of resource-centric next-activity prediction, opening up new venues for research on PPM.

流程预测资源优化机器学习

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