让地震模型不再黑箱,同时解决数据不平衡问题。
Breaking the Black Box: Inherently Interpretable Physics-Constrained Machine Learning With Weighted Mixed-Effects for Imbalanced Seismic Data
- 用可解释的神经网络路径结构+物理约束损失函数
- 误差仅0.62,对高风险区域预测更准
- 适合地震工程与灾害评估研究者使用
地面运动模型(GMMs)对地震风险缓解和基础设施设计至关重要。随着强震数据库扩大,机器学习(ML)在构建GMM中的应用日益增多。然而,现有基于ML的GMM多为“黑箱”,导致工程决策信心不足。此外,地震数据严重失衡,大震近场记录稀缺,造成关键高危地面运动被系统性低估。尽管存在这些问题,同时解决可解释性与数据失衡的研究仍较少。本研究提出一种固有可解释的神经网络,采用独立加法路径结构,结合新型HazBinLoss与共线性正则化。HazBinLoss通过物理约束加权与逆频数缩放,缓解稀疏高危区的欠拟合问题。共线性正则化强制路径正交,降低路径间相关性。模型表现稳健:均方误差=0.6235,平均绝对误差=0.6230,决定系数=88.48%。路径缩放结果符合已知地震学规律。加权分层学生t混合效应分析显示残差无偏,且物理一致的方差分解:σ分量范围为0.26–0.38(事件间)、0.12–0.41(区域间)、0.58–0.71(事件内)、0.68–0.89(总)。较低的事件间、较高的事件内分量对非遍历性风险分析具有意义。预测结果与NGA-West2 GMM在多种条件下高度一致。该可解释框架推动了GMM发展,为地震风险评估提供了透明、物理一致的基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Ground motion models (GMMs) are critical for seismic risk mitigation and infrastructure design. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly applied to GMM development due to expanding strong motion databases. However, existing ML-based GMMs operate as 'black boxes,' creating opacity that undermines confidence in engineering decisions. Moreover, seismic datasets exhibit severe imbalance, with scarce large-magnitude near-field records causing systematic underprediction of critical high-hazard ground motions. Despite these limitations, research addressing both interpretability and data imbalance remains limited. This study develops an inherently interpretable neural network employing independent additive pathways with novel HazBinLoss and concurvity regularization. HazBinLoss integrates physics-constrained weighting with inverse bin count scaling to address underfitting in sparse, high-hazard regions. Concurvity regularization enforces pathway orthogonality, reducing inter-pathway correlation. The model achieves robust performance: mean squared error = 0.6235, mean absolute error = 0.6230, and coefficient of determination = 88.48%. Pathway scaling corroborates established seismological behaviors. Weighted hierarchical Student-t mixed-effects analysis demonstrates unbiased residuals with physically consistent variance partitioning: sigma components range from 0.26-0.38 (inter-event), 0.12-0.41 (inter-region), 0.58-0.71 (intra-event), and 0.68-0.89 (total). The lower inter-event and higher intra-event components have implications for non-ergodic hazard analysis. Predictions exhibit strong agreement with NGA-West2 GMMs across diverse conditions. This interpretable framework advances GMMs, establishing a transparent, physics-consistent foundation for seismic hazard and risk assessment.
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