用扩散模型增强Transformer,让交通预测更准更稳。
DETNO: A Diffusion-Enhanced Transformer Neural Operator for Long-Term Traffic Forecasting
- 融合Transformer与扩散模型,分步修复高频交通细节。
- 在长时间预测中保持尖锐拥堵边界,误差增长显著降低。
- 适合需要高精度长时预测的智慧交通系统应用。
准确的长期交通预测仍是智能交通系统中的关键挑战,尤其在长时间滚动预测中需捕捉冲击波、拥堵边界等高频现象。神经算子虽能学习函数空间映射,但其固有平滑性导致无法重建如密度梯度等高频特征,造成多步滚动预测中误差快速累积。为此,本文提出统一的扩散增强型Transformer神经算子(DETNO)架构:结合具备交叉注意力机制的Transformer神经算子以提升表达能力与超分辨率性能,并引入基于扩散的精修模块,通过渐进去噪迭代恢复高频交通细节,克服传统神经算子的平滑性缺陷与滚动不稳定性。在混沌交通数据集上的综合评估表明,该方法在长时滚动预测中显著优于传统及基于Transformer的神经算子,有效保留高频成分并提升预测稳定性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate long-term traffic forecasting remains a critical challenge in intelligent transportation systems, particularly when predicting high-frequency traffic phenomena such as shock waves and congestion boundaries over extended rollout horizons. Neural operators have recently gained attention as promising tools for modeling traffic flow. While effective at learning function space mappings, they inherently produce smooth predictions that fail to reconstruct high-frequency features such as sharp density gradients which results in rapid error accumulation during multi-step rollout predictions essential for real-time traffic management. To address these fundamental limitations, we introduce a unified Diffusion-Enhanced Transformer Neural Operator (DETNO) architecture. DETNO leverages a transformer neural operator with cross-attention mechanisms, providing model expressivity and super-resolution, coupled with a diffusion-based refinement component that iteratively reconstructs high-frequency traffic details through progressive denoising. This overcomes the inherent smoothing limitations and rollout instability of standard neural operators. Through comprehensive evaluation on chaotic traffic datasets, our method demonstrates superior performance in extended rollout predictions compared to traditional and transformer-based neural operators, preserving high-frequency components and improving stability over long prediction horizons.
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