arXiv:2508.20437cs.LGcs.AI2025-08AAAI被引 2

对比多种模型在时序预测中的表现,揭示其适用场景与解释性差异。

On Identifying Why and When Foundation Models Perform Well on Time-Series Forecasting Using Automated Explanations and Rating

  • 融合XAI与评分驱动解释法,自动评估模型性能与可解释性。
  • 在波动或稀疏数据中,传统模型优于基础模型;稳定数据中基础模型更优。
  • 为金融、能源等领域用户提供模型选择与使用建议,适合决策者参考。

时序预测模型已从经典统计方法发展到复杂的通用基础模型,但理解其成功或失败的原因及适用条件仍具挑战性。尽管存在这一局限,这些模型正被广泛用于指导现实决策,带来实际后果。本文结合传统可解释AI(XAI)与评分驱动解释(RDE),评估四类模型架构——ARIMA、梯度提升、Chronos(时序专用基础模型)、Llama(通用基础模型,含微调与原始版本)——在金融、能源、交通和汽车销售四个异构数据集上的表现。结果表明,在波动性强或数据稀疏的领域(如电力、汽车零部件),特征工程模型(如梯度提升)持续优于基础模型(如Chronos),且提供更可解释的输出;而基础模型仅在稳定或趋势主导的场景(如金融)中表现优异。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time-series forecasting models (TSFM) have evolved from classical statistical methods to sophisticated foundation models, yet understanding why and when these models succeed or fail remains challenging. Despite this known limitation, time series forecasting models are increasingly used to generate information that informs real-world actions with equally real consequences. Understanding the complexity, performance variability, and opaque nature of these models then becomes a valuable endeavor to combat serious concerns about how users should interact with and rely on these models' outputs. This work addresses these concerns by combining traditional explainable AI (XAI) methods with Rating Driven Explanations (RDE) to assess TSFM performance and interpretability across diverse domains and use cases. We evaluate four distinct model architectures: ARIMA, Gradient Boosting, Chronos (time-series specific foundation model), Llama (general-purpose; both fine-tuned and base models) on four heterogeneous datasets spanning finance, energy, transportation, and automotive sales domains. In doing so, we demonstrate that feature-engineered models (e.g., Gradient Boosting) consistently outperform foundation models (e.g., Chronos) in volatile or sparse domains (e.g., power, car parts) while providing more interpretable explanations, whereas foundation models excel only in stable or trend-driven contexts (e.g., finance).

时序预测模型解释基础模型可解释AI

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