arXiv:2509.00010physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-09被引 4

CERA让模型不靠暖化气候数据也能预测未来气候,提升泛化能力。

CERA: A Framework for Improved Generalization of Machine Learning Models to Changed Climates

  • 用隐空间对齐的自编码器提取气候不变特征,避免手动工程。
  • 无需暖化气候标签数据,仍可准确预测温升下的水汽与能量变化。
  • 适合气候参数化、降尺度等需要跨气候泛化的研究场景。

气候变迁下机器学习模型的鲁棒泛化仍是气候科学中的重大挑战。现有方法难以超越训练所用气候条件,严重依赖暖化气候模拟数据。使用气候不变输入虽能改善泛化,但需复杂的手动特征工程。本文提出CERA(Climate-invariant Encoding through Representation Alignment)框架,由显式隐空间对齐的自编码器与下游预测器组成,用于湿物理过程参数化。在未使用+4K气候标签数据的情况下,CERA仅利用控制气候标签数据和未标注的暖化气候输入,即在预测关键水汽与能量倾向上优于原始输入和物理启发基线。它不仅捕捉了水汽倾向的垂直和纬向结构,还识别出降水强度分布及极端事件的变化。消融实验表明,隐空间对齐提升了准确率与不同随机种子下的鲁棒性。尽管边界层表现仍有下降,该框架为气候不变输入提供了数据驱动替代方案,适用于混合机器学习-物理系统中的参数化及其他气候应用如统计降尺度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Robust generalization under climate change remains a major challenge for machine learning applications in climate science. Most existing approaches struggle to extrapolate beyond the climate they were trained on, leading to a strong dependence on training data from model simulations of warm climates. Use of climate-invariant inputs improves generalization but requires challenging manual feature engineering. Here, we present CERA (Climate-invariant Encoding through Representation Alignment), a machine learning framework consisting of an autoencoder with explicit latent-space alignment, followed by a predictor for downstream process estimation. We test CERA on the problem of parameterizing moist-physics processes. Without training on labeled data from a +4K climate, CERA leverages labeled control-climate data and unlabeled warmer-climate inputs to improve generalization to the warmer climate, outperforming both raw-input and physically informed baselines in predicting key moisture and energy tendencies. It captures not only the vertical and meridional structures of the moisture tendencies, but also shifts in the intensity distribution of precipitation including extremes. Ablation experiments show that latent alignment improves both accuracy and the robustness across random seeds used in training. While some reduced skill remains in the boundary layer, the framework offers a data-driven alternative to manual feature engineering of climate invariant inputs. Beyond parameterizations used in hybrid ML-physics systems, the approach holds promise for other climate applications such as statistical downscaling.

气候建模泛化能力自编码器参数化

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