arXiv:2509.00015physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-09被引 3

用深度学习预测地中海海温,9天预报精度超传统模型。

MedFormer: a data-driven model for forecasting the Mediterranean Sea

  • 基于U-Net和3D注意力机制,融合历史海洋状态与大气强迫。
  • 在1/24°分辨率下,9天预报误差比现有系统降低15%-28%。
  • 适合需要高精度、低延迟的海洋业务预报场景。

精准的海洋预报对众多海洋应用至关重要。近年来,人工智能推动数据驱动模型在气象预报中超越传统数值方法,但将其拓展至海洋系统仍具挑战,因海洋动力学更缓慢且边界条件复杂。本文提出MedFormer,一种专为地中海中长期海洋预报设计的全数据驱动深度学习模型。该模型基于带3D注意力的U-Net架构,水平分辨率达1/24°,使用20年日尺度海洋再分析数据训练,并以高分辨率运行分析数据微调。通过自回归策略生成9天预报,同时利用历史海洋状态和大气强迫,具备良好的业务适用性。在分析数据及独立观测上,与意大利地中海气候中心(CMCC)开发的先进地中海预报系统(MedFS)对比,基于均方根差和异常相关系数的评估显示,MedFormer在多个关键三维海洋变量上持续表现更优。结果表明,像MedFormer这样的数据驱动方法在精度与计算效率上可媲美甚至超越传统数值预报系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate ocean forecasting is essential for supporting a wide range of marine applications. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have highlighted the potential of data-driven models to outperform traditional numerical approaches, particularly in atmospheric weather forecasting. However, extending these methods to ocean systems remains challenging due to their inherently slower dynamics and complex boundary conditions. In this work, we present MedFormer, a fully data-driven deep learning model specifically designed for medium-range ocean forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea. MedFormer is based on a U-Net architecture augmented with 3D attention mechanisms and operates at a high horizontal resolution of 1/24°. The model is trained on 20 years of daily ocean reanalysis data and fine-tuned with high-resolution operational analyses. It generates 9-day forecasts using an autoregressive strategy. The model leverages both historical ocean states and atmospheric forcings, making it well-suited for operational use. We benchmark MedFormer against the state-of-the-art Mediterranean Forecasting System (MedFS), developed at Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), using both analysis data and independent observations. The forecast skills, evaluated with the Root Mean Squared Difference and the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient, indicate that MedFormer consistently outperforms MedFS across key 3D ocean variables. These findings underscore the potential of data-driven approaches like MedFormer to complement, or even surpass, traditional numerical ocean forecasting systems in both accuracy and computational efficiency.

海洋预报深度学习地中海时间序列

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。