arXiv:2509.00017physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-09被引 2

用图神经网络融合观测数据,实现瑞士高分辨率短时天气预报。

Observation-guided Interpolation Using Graph Neural Networks for High-Resolution Nowcasting in Switzerland

  • 基于图神经网络融合观测与数值预报数据,实现观测引导的插值。
  • 在多数变量和预报时效上优于官方数值模式(ICON-CH1)和实时分析系统(INCA)。
  • 适合山区复杂地形的高时空分辨率天气预报,尤其适用于短时预警场景。

近年来神经天气预报取得了显著进展,但在瑞士这类地形复杂的中小区域实现高空间分辨率(1km)和高时间分辨率(10分钟)仍面临计算挑战。本文提出一种基于图神经网络(GNN)的高分辨率短时预报方法,采用Anemoi框架,结合地表观测与历史及未来数值天气预报(NWP)状态,构建观测引导的插值策略,在保持物理一致性的同时提升短期预报精度。我们评估了两种模型:一种使用本地短时分析训练,另一种不使用。在多个地表变量上对比操作型高分辨率NWP(ICON-CH1)和短时预报系统(INCA)基准。测试期结果显示,两类GNN均在多数变量和预报时效上优于ICON-CH1,相对于INCA系统,在超过2小时的预报提前量中展现出显著优势(早期预报因INCA依赖分析初值而略有劣势),且在保留站点验证中未出现短时预报性能系统性下降,多数地表变量表现更优。综合空间技能评分、成对显著性检验和事件级评估表明该方法在山地区域具备实际应用价值。结果表明,高分辨率、观测引导的GNN可在短时预报中达到或超越现有系统水平,即使未使用短时分析数据训练亦可实现良好性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent advances in neural weather forecasting have shown significant potential for accurate short-term forecasts. However, adapting such gridded approaches to smaller, topographically complex regions like Switzerland introduces computational challenges, especially when aiming for high spatial (1km) and temporal (10 min) resolution. This paper presents a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach for high-resolution nowcasting in Switzerland using the Anemoi framework and observational inputs. The proposed architecture combines surface observations with selected past and future numerical weather prediction (NWP) states, enabling an observation-guided interpolation strategy that enhances short-term accuracy while preserving physical consistency. We evaluate two models, one trained using local nowcasting analyses and one trained without, on multiple surface variables and compare it against operational high-resolution NWP (ICON-CH1) and nowcasting (INCA) baselines. Results over the test period show that both GNNs consistently outperform ICON-CH1 when verified against INCA analyses across most variables and lead times. Relative to the INCA forecast system, scores against INCA analyses show AI gains beyond 2h (with early-lead disadvantages attributable to INCA's warm start from the analysis), while verification against held-out stations shows no systematic degradation at short lead-times for AI models and frequent outperformance across surface variables. A comprehensive verification procedure, including spatial skill scores for precipitation, pairwise significance testing and event-based evaluation, demonstrates the operational relevance of the approach for mountainous domains. These results indicate that high-resolution, observation-guided GNNs can match or exceed the skill of established forecasting systems for short lead times, including when they are trained without nowcasting analyses.

天气预报图神经网络高分辨率瑞士

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