用量子门优化状态空间模型,高效预测长序列时间数据。
Quantum-Optimized Selective State Space Model for Efficient Time Series Prediction
- 用可变量子门调节记忆更新,替代复杂注意力机制。
- 在三个基准上优于LSTM、Transformer和S-Mamba模型。
- 适合需要稳定高效长时序建模的工业预测场景。
长时序时间序列预测仍具挑战性,需捕捉非平稳与多尺度时间依赖关系,同时保证抗噪性、效率与稳定性。基于Transformer的模型如Autoformer和Informer虽提升泛化能力,但存在二次复杂度问题,且在超长预测时性能下降。状态空间模型(如S-Mamba)虽实现线性时间更新,但常面临训练不稳定、对初始化敏感及多变量预测鲁棒性不足的问题。为此,我们提出量子优化的选择性状态空间模型(Q-SSM),一种融合状态空间动态与变分量子门的混合方法。不同于昂贵的注意力机制,Q-SSM采用简单的参数化量子电路(RY-RX ansatz),其期望值自适应调控记忆更新。该量子门机制提升了收敛稳定性,增强了长期依赖建模能力,并提供了轻量化的注意力替代方案。我们在ETT、Traffic和Exchange Rate三个广泛使用的基准上进行了实证验证,结果表明Q-SSM持续优于LSTM、TCN、Reformer、基于Transformer的模型以及S-Mamba。这些发现证明,变分量子门能有效解决当前长时序预测中的局限,实现准确且稳健的多变量预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long-range time series forecasting remains challenging, as it requires capturing non-stationary and multi-scale temporal dependencies while maintaining noise robustness, efficiency, and stability. Transformer-based architectures such as Autoformer and Informer improve generalization but suffer from quadratic complexity and degraded performance on very long time horizons. State space models, notably S-Mamba, provide linear-time updates but often face unstable training dynamics, sensitivity to initialization, and limited robustness for multivariate forecasting. To address such challenges, we propose the Quantum-Optimized Selective State Space Model (Q-SSM), a hybrid quantum-optimized approach that integrates state space dynamics with a variational quantum gate. Instead of relying on expensive attention mechanisms, Q-SSM employs a simple parametrized quantum circuit (RY-RX ansatz) whose expectation values regulate memory updates adaptively. This quantum gating mechanism improves convergence stability, enhances the modeling of long-term dependencies, and provides a lightweight alternative to attention. We empirically validate Q-SSM on three widely used benchmarks, i.e., ETT, Traffic, and Exchange Rate. Results show that Q-SSM consistently improves over strong baselines (LSTM, TCN, Reformer), Transformer-based models, and S-Mamba. These findings demonstrate that variational quantum gating can address current limitations in long-range forecasting, leading to accurate and robust multivariate predictions.
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