arXiv:2509.00268physics.geo-phcs.AI2025-09

用环境噪音被动监测地壳应力变化,提前发现地震前兆

Remotely sensing stress evolution in elastic media: a passive approach to earthquake monitoring

  • 基于频域变换分析环境地震噪声,捕捉应力引起的波传播变化
  • 在实验室与多起真实地震事件中均发现应力演化前兆信号
  • 无需主动探测,适合长期实时监测断层力学行为

应力演化控制着从微观裂纹到大地震的材料失效过程,但自然系统中其动态直接观测仍极为困难。实验室中虽已证实地震波速和衰减对应力敏感,但此前无法实现远程或被动监测。本文提出一种应力敏感的频域变换方法,利用环境地震或声学噪声,量化相邻频段间相对能量变化,捕捉与剪切及正应力演化相关的波传播特性微变。该方法在尺度上覆盖实验室滑移实验、慢滑事件,以及2018年基拉韦厄火山塌陷、卡斯卡迪亚慢滑事件,以及2011年东日本、2010年马乌莱、2002年丹奈利、2023年土耳其-叙利亚等大地震中,均一致揭示出独特的前兆轨迹与应力周期模式。结果表明,弹性地球介质中的应力演化可实现远程被动监测,连接了实验室岩石物理与大尺度地震学,为实时追踪断层力学与地震孕育提供了新基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Stress evolution governs material failure across scales, from microscopic fractures to large earthquakes, yet direct observation of its dynamics in natural systems has remained elusive. Laboratory experiments using active ultrasonic measurements have shown that seismic velocity and attenuation are sensitive to stress, but such monitoring has not previously been achievable remotely or passively. Here we introduce a stress-sensitive frequency-domain transform that enables passive monitoring of stress evolution using ambient seismic or acoustic noise. The method quantifies relative energy shifts between adjacent frequency bands, capturing subtle changes in wave-propagation properties linked to evolving shear and normal stress. Applied across scales, from laboratory stick-slip and slow-slip experiments to natural fault systems including the 2018 Kilauea collapse, Cascadia slow-slip episodes, and major earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku, 2010 Maule, 2002 Denali, and 2023 Turkey-Syria events, the transform consistently reveals distinctive precursory trajectories and stress-cycle patterns. These results demonstrate that stress evolution in elastic Earth materials can be remotely and passively monitored, bridging laboratory rock physics and large-scale seismology and offering a new foundation for real-time tracking of fault mechanics and earthquake preparation.

地震监测应力演化被动感知前兆识别

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