提出分层微分模型,分离设备退化与瞬时运行干扰,提升健康监测精度。
Disentangling Slow and Fast Temporal Dynamics in Degradation Inference with Hierarchical Differential Models
- 分层建模慢速退化与快速运行动态,分别积分提升数值稳定性。
- 通过可学习路径映射和单调性约束,有效解耦退化信号。
- 在机械与基础设施数据上表现优于传统方法,适合无监督退化评估。
从传感器数据中可靠推断系统退化是机械与基础设施状态监控和寿命预测的基础。由于退化通常不可直接观测,需通过间接方式推断以实现准确健康评估与决策。然而,操作与环境变化主导系统行为,退化仅带来细微的长期变化,导致传感器数据主要反映短期波动,难以区分退化过程。现有无监督方法通常学习正常行为并以残差作为退化代理,但残差仍与操作历史高度纠缠,尤其在具有显著瞬态动态的基础设施系统中,退化估计噪声大且不可靠。神经常微分方程(NODEs)虽能灵活建模隐变量动态,但在退化系统中面临数值刚性问题,退化解耦困难。为此,本文提出分层控制微分方程(H-CDE)框架,联合建模缓慢退化动态与快速运行动态。通过将慢速与快速成分分别积分,提升数值效率;利用可学习路径变换将原始输入映射至退化相关控制路径,并结合单调性约束激活函数正则化退化动态,实现有效的退化解耦。在机械与基础设施系统的实验表明,H-CDE优于基于残差的基线方法,在无监督设置下获得更精确、鲁棒且可解释的退化推断结果。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Reliable inference of system degradation from sensor data is fundamental to condition monitoring and prognostics in mechanical and infrastructural systems. Since degradation is rarely directly observable and measurable, it must be inferred to enable accurate health assessment and decision-making. This is particularly challenging because operational and environmental variations dominate system behavior, while degradation introduces only subtle, long-term changes. Consequently, sensor data primarily reflect short-term operational variability, making it difficult to disentangle the underlying degradation process. Most unsupervised degradation inference methods learn nominal system behavior and use residuals as degradation proxies. However, residuals remain strongly entangled with operational history, yielding noisy and unreliable degradation estimates, particularly in infrastructural systems with dominant transient dynamics. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) offer a flexible framework for modeling latent dynamics, but in degraded systems, they suffer from numerical stiffness and degradation disentanglement remains difficult. To address these challenges, we propose a Hierarchical Controlled Differential Equation (H-CDE) framework that jointly models slow degradation dynamics and fast operational dynamics. H-CDE improves numerical efficiency through separate time integration of slow and fast components. Through a learnable path transformation mapping raw inputs to a latent degradation-relevant control path and a monotonicity-enforcing activation function that regularizes the inferred degradation dynamics, H-CDE enables effective disentangled degradation inference. Evaluations on mechanical and infrastructural systems demonstrate that H-CDE outperforms residual-based baselines, yielding more accurate, robust, and interpretable degradation inference in an unsupervised setting.
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