用强化学习增强文本,让多模态时间预测更准。
Text Reinforcement for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting
- 用强化学习生成更贴合时间序列的优化文本
- 在真实数据集上显著超越现有基线模型
- 适合需要融合文本与时序数据的预测场景
近期时间序列预测(TSF)研究采用文本和历史时序数据等多模态输入来预测未来值。这些方法主要致力于将文本信息与时间序列数据融合,取得良好效果。然而,它们依赖高质量的文本和时序输入,当文本无法准确或完整反映历史时序信息时,多模态TSF性能不稳定。为此,本文提出通过增强文本模态来提升多模态TSF性能。我们设计文本增强模型(TeR),生成弥补原始文本缺陷的强化文本,并用于支持多模态TSF模型对时序的理解。为引导TeR生成高质量文本,我们引入基于强化学习的奖励机制,奖励依据强化文本对多模态TSF模型性能的影响及其与任务的相关性。实验在涵盖多个领域的实际基准数据集上进行,结果表明该方法显著优于强基线及现有研究。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent studies in time series forecasting (TSF) use multimodal inputs, such as text and historical time series data, to predict future values. These studies mainly focus on developing advanced techniques to integrate textual information with time series data to perform the task and achieve promising results. Meanwhile, these approaches rely on high-quality text and time series inputs, whereas in some cases, the text does not accurately or fully capture the information carried by the historical time series, which leads to unstable performance in multimodal TSF. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the textual content to improve the performance of multimodal TSF. In this paper, we propose improving multimodal TSF by reinforcing the text modalities. We propose a text reinforcement model (TeR) to generate reinforced text that addresses potential weaknesses in the original text, then apply this reinforced text to support the multimodal TSF model's understanding of the time series, improving TSF performance. To guide the TeR toward producing higher-quality reinforced text, we design a reinforcement learning approach that assigns rewards based on the impact of each reinforced text on the performance of the multimodal TSF model and its relevance to the TSF task. We optimize the TeR accordingly, so as to improve the quality of the generated reinforced text and enhance TSF performance. Extensive experiments on a real-world benchmark dataset covering various domains demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which outperforms strong baselines and existing studies on the dataset.
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