将因果干预逻辑搬上量子硬件,实现可执行的因果推理实验。
Implementing Pearl's $\mathcal{DO}$-Calculus on Quantum Circuits: A Simpson-Type Case Study on NISQ Hardware
- 用量子电路模拟因果图,通过电路重构实现干预操作。
- 在10量子比特医疗模型上验证,硬件结果与经典计算高度一致。
- 适合对量子因果推理感兴趣的学者和实验量子计算研究者。
区分相关性与因果性是机器智能的核心挑战,佩尔的$/mathcal{DO}$-演算提供了严谨的符号化干预推理框架。本文探索该逻辑能否在物理量子设备上获得可执行语义。我们提出将因果网络映射到量子电路:节点编码为量子寄存器,概率边由受控旋转门实现,干预通过电路结构重构完成——即“电路手术”,对应佩尔的“图手术”。针对一类包含辛普森悖论反转的三节点混杂治疗模型,后手术电路精确复现了经典$/mathcal{DO}$-演算所规定的干预分布。我们在IonQ Aria离子阱处理器上实现了原理验证,使用一个10量子比特合成医疗模型,在真实噪声条件下观察到硬件估计与经典基线高度一致。本文不宣称量子加速,而是建立了一条将因果图与佩尔式干预在量子电路形式中表示、执行并实证检验的明确路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Distinguishing correlation from causation is a central challenge in machine intelligence, and Pearl's $\mathcal{DO}$-calculus provides a rigorous symbolic framework for reasoning about interventions. A complementary question is whether such intervention logic can be given \emph{executable semantics} on physical quantum devices. Our approach maps causal networks onto quantum circuits, where nodes are encoded in qubit registers, probabilistic links are implemented by controlled-rotation gates, and interventions are realized by a structural remodeling of the circuit -- a physical analogue of Pearl's ``graph surgery'' that we term \emph{circuit surgery}. We show that, for a family of 3-node confounded treatment models (including a Simpson-type reversal), the post-surgery circuits reproduce exactly the interventional distributions prescribed by the corresponding classical $\mathcal{DO}$-calculus. We then demonstrate a proof-of-principle experimental realization on an IonQ Aria trapped-ion processor and a 10-qubit synthetic healthcare model, observing close agreement between hardware estimates and classical baselines under realistic noise. We do not claim quantum speedup; instead, our contribution is to establish a concrete pathway by which causal graphs and Pearl-style interventions can be represented, executed, and empirically tested within the formalism of quantum circuits.
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