用不确定性估计提升生命体征预测可信度,让医生看清预警是真异常还是模型噪音。
Towards Trustworthy Vital Sign Forecasting: Leveraging Uncertainty for Prediction Intervals
- 基于重建不确定性估计,构建可校准的预测区间
- 低频数据下高斯耦合方法优于传统方法,高频数据下邻近样本法表现最佳
- 适合需要可解释性与信任度的临床预测场景
心率、血压等生命体征是患者健康的关键指标,广泛用于临床监测与决策。尽管深度学习在预测这些信号方面展现出潜力,但其在医疗领域的应用仍受限于临床医生对模型输出的信任与可解释性需求。缺乏可靠的不确定性量化(尤其是校准过的预测区间)使得难以判断预测的异常是否为真正警示,还是仅由模型噪声引起。为此,本文提出两种基于重建不确定性估计(RUE)的预测区间推导方法:一种假设预测误差与不确定性服从高斯耦合分布,实现闭式计算;另一种基于k近邻(KNN),通过相似验证样本经验估计条件误差分布。我们在两个大规模公开数据集上评估了方法,分别对应分钟级和小时级采样,代表高频与低频健康信号。实验表明,高斯耦合方法在低频数据上持续优于对比的分位数回归基线,而KNN方法在高频数据上表现最优。结果表明,基于RUE的预测区间具有显著临床应用潜力,可提供可解释且带有不确定性的生命体征预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Vital signs, such as heart rate and blood pressure, are critical indicators of patient health and are widely used in clinical monitoring and decision-making. While deep learning models have shown promise in forecasting these signals, their deployment in healthcare remains limited in part because clinicians must be able to trust and interpret model outputs. Without reliable uncertainty quantification -- particularly calibrated prediction intervals (PIs) -- it is unclear whether a forecasted abnormality constitutes a meaningful warning or merely reflects model noise, hindering clinical decision-making. To address this, we present two methods for deriving PIs from the Reconstruction Uncertainty Estimate (RUE), an uncertainty measure well-suited to vital-sign forecasting due to its sensitivity to data shifts and support for label-free calibration. Our parametric approach assumes that prediction errors and uncertainty estimates follow a Gaussian copula distribution, enabling closed-form PI computation. Our non-parametric approach, based on k-nearest neighbours (KNN), empirically estimates the conditional error distribution using similar validation instances. We evaluate these methods on two large public datasets with minute- and hour-level sampling, representing high- and low-frequency health signals. Experiments demonstrate that the Gaussian copula method consistently outperforms conformal prediction baselines on low-frequency data, while the KNN approach performs best on high-frequency data. These results underscore the clinical promise of RUE-derived PIs for delivering interpretable, uncertainty-aware vital sign forecasts.
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