arXiv:2509.01338cs.AI2025-09被引 2

用生成模型提升多模式系统预测精度,让监控结果更精准有用。

Conformal Predictive Monitoring for Multi-Modal Scenarios

  • 用扩散模型捕捉多模式动态,再按模式分类预测
  • 相比传统方法,预测区间更紧致、信息量更高
  • 适合自动驾驶等复杂动态系统的实时安全监控

我们研究随机系统中定量预测监控(QPM)问题,即从系统当前状态预测其满足期望时序逻辑属性的程度。为实现及时干预,现有方法常采用快速机器学习代理,并结合置信推断提供统计保障。然而,当被监控对象呈现多模态动力学时——某些模式下满意度高,另一些则严重违反性质——现有方法因不区分模式,导致预测区间过于保守且缺乏模式特异性信息。为此,我们提出GenQPM,利用基于得分的扩散模型可靠逼近无显式模型访问的多模态系统动态,通过模式分类器将预测轨迹按动力学模式划分。对每种模式分别应用置信推断,生成具有统计有效性的模式特异预测区间。我们在代理导航与自动驾驶基准任务上验证了GenQPM的有效性,结果表明其预测区间显著比无模式区分的基线更紧凑、更富信息。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We consider the problem of quantitative predictive monitoring (QPM) of stochastic systems, i.e., predicting at runtime the degree of satisfaction of a desired temporal logic property from the current state of the system. Since computational efficiency is key to enable timely intervention against predicted violations, several state-of-the-art QPM approaches rely on fast machine-learning surrogates to provide prediction intervals for the satisfaction values, using conformal inference to offer statistical guarantees. However, these QPM methods suffer when the monitored agent exhibits multi-modal dynamics, whereby certain modes may yield high satisfaction values while others critically violate the property. Existing QPM methods are mode-agnostic and so would yield overly conservative and uninformative intervals that lack meaningful mode-specific satisfaction information. To address this problem, we present GenQPM, a method that leverages deep generative models, specifically score-based diffusion models, to reliably approximate the probabilistic and multi-modal system dynamics without requiring explicit model access. GenQPM employs a mode classifier to partition the predicted trajectories by dynamical mode. For each mode, we then apply conformal inference to produce statistically valid, mode-specific prediction intervals. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GenQPM on a benchmark of agent navigation and autonomous driving tasks, resulting in prediction intervals that are significantly more informative (less conservative) than mode-agnostic baselines.

多模态预测监控扩散模型置信推断

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