用智能体模拟药品短缺,看监管信息如何影响企业决策。
ShortageSim: Simulating Drug Shortages under Information Asymmetry
- 用大模型构建厂商和买家智能体,模拟信息不对称下的策略博弈。
- 对历史短缺事件模拟显示,生产中断问题解决延迟减少84%。
- 适合政策研究者与供应链安全领域专家参考使用。
药品短缺对全球患者护理和医疗系统构成重大风险,但监管干预的有效性因制药供应链中的信息不对称而难以评估。本文提出首个仿真框架 ShortageSim,通过大语言模型(LLM)驱动的智能体,模拟监管机构发布短缺预警后,制造商与采购机构在信息不对称条件下的战略决策。不同于传统博弈论模型假设完全理性和充分信息,ShortageSim 能够捕捉对监管公告的不同解读及由此产生的差异化行为。基于自处理的历史短缺事件数据集实验表明,该框架可将生产中断案例的解决延迟缩短最高达84%,其轨迹更贴近真实情况,优于零样本基线。结果验证了监管预警的有效性,并为多阶段、不确定性环境下的竞争机制提供了新分析方法。我们开源了 ShortageSim 及包含2,925个美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)短缺事件的数据集,为未来在信息不对称供应链中开展政策设计与测试研究提供全新工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Drug shortages pose critical risks to patient care and healthcare systems worldwide, yet the effectiveness of regulatory interventions remains poorly understood due to information asymmetries in pharmaceutical supply chains. We propose \textbf{ShortageSim}, addresses this challenge by providing the first simulation framework that evaluates the impact of regulatory interventions on competition dynamics under information asymmetry. Using Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents, the framework models the strategic decisions of drug manufacturers and institutional buyers, in response to shortage alerts given by the regulatory agency. Unlike traditional game theory models that assume perfect rationality and complete information, ShortageSim simulates heterogeneous interpretations on regulatory announcements and the resulting decisions. Experiments on self-processed dataset of historical shortage events show that ShortageSim reduces the resolution lag for production disruption cases by up to 84\%, achieving closer alignment to real-world trajectories than the zero-shot baseline. Our framework confirms the effect of regulatory alert in addressing shortages and introduces a new method for understanding competition in multi-stage environments under uncertainty. We open-source ShortageSim and a dataset of 2,925 FDA shortage events, providing a novel framework for future research on policy design and testing in supply chains under information asymmetry.
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