首个评估大模型时序推理能力的基准,揭示其在复杂分析中的短板。
When LLM Meets Time Series: Can LLMs Perform Multi-Step Time Series Reasoning and Inference
- 构建动态可扩展的TSAIA基准,覆盖33类真实时序任务
- 8个主流大模型在多步推理中表现不足,平均准确率低于60%
- 适合研究时序AI、大模型应用与领域适配的学者使用
大语言模型(LLMs)在时序分析领域的应用日益受到关注,但其在真实场景中进行复杂时序推理的能力仍缺乏系统评估。为此,本文提出首个专门用于评估大模型作为时序智能助手的基准——TSAIA。基于对20余篇学术论文的调研,我们提炼出33种真实世界任务,涵盖约束感知预测、阈值校准的异常检测等需要组合推理与多步分析的任务。题库生成器支持动态扩展,适应新数据集和任务类型。针对任务异构性,采用任务定制的成功标准与推理质量指标。在统一评估协议下,我们测试了8个先进LLMs,结果表明当前模型在构建复杂时序分析流程方面存在明显局限,亟需领域特定方法优化。该基准已公开于https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TSAIA,代码开源于https://github.com/USC-Melady/TSAIA。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked growing interest in their application to time series analysis tasks. However, their ability to perform complex reasoning over temporal data in real-world application domains remains underexplored. To move toward this goal, a first step is to establish a rigorous benchmark dataset for evaluation. In this work, we introduce the TSAIA Benchmark, a first attempt to evaluate LLMs as time-series AI assistants. To ensure both scientific rigor and practical relevance, we surveyed over 20 academic publications and identified 33 real-world task formulations. The benchmark encompasses a broad spectrum of challenges, ranging from constraint-aware forecasting to anomaly detection with threshold calibration: tasks that require compositional reasoning and multi-step time series analysis. The question generator is designed to be dynamic and extensible, supporting continuous expansion as new datasets or task types are introduced. Given the heterogeneous nature of the tasks, we adopt task-specific success criteria and tailored inference-quality metrics to ensure meaningful evaluation for each task. We apply this benchmark to assess eight state-of-the-art LLMs under a unified evaluation protocol. Our analysis reveals limitations in current models' ability to assemble complex time series analysis workflows, underscoring the need for specialized methodologies for domain-specific adaptation. Our benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TSAIA, and the code is available at https://github.com/USC-Melady/TSAIA.
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