arXiv:2509.01924stat.MLcs.LG2025-09被引 1

用可解释的非线性算法优化农田施肥,兼顾增产与环保。

Non-Linear Model-Based Sequential Decision-Making in Agriculture

  • 基于生物机制构建非线性强化学习框架,直接关联最大产量与养分效率。
  • 在玉米田试验中,新方法比基准提升约12%利润,且学习速度更快。
  • 适合农业决策者、可持续农业研究者及智能农作系统开发者。

农业生产面临双重挑战:既要维持高产以保障全球粮食安全,又要减少化肥等投入品对环境的影响,包括氮肥流失及除草剂、杀虫剂、杀菌剂等的使用。氮肥是这一矛盾的核心——对作物生长至关重要,却也是温室气体排放、营养流失和生产成本上升的主要驱动因素。应对这些交织压力,需要兼具统计严谨性、经济可持续性和可解释性的自适应决策支持工具。本文提出非线性模型基贝叶斯算法,作为不确定条件下自适应施肥管理的框架。基于经典机理型产量响应模型,该方法将算法探索-利用策略与可解释的生物学过程(如最大产量、养分效率)直接关联,使建议透明易懂,同时实现低成本、可持续的投入品使用。方法上,我们建立了理想非线性情形下的后悔率与样本复杂度结果,分析了模型误设下的鲁棒性,并通过面向利润的模拟和美国中西部多站点玉米氮肥田间试验的离线回放案例进行评估。结果显示,引入生物意义明确的机理结构可加速学习并提高利润,而非参数基线在聚合与异质场景中表现也具竞争力。研究证明,可解释、不确定性感知的序贯决策规则能支持经济可持续的施肥建议,推动农业投入更高效利用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Agricultural decision-making faces a dual challenge: sustaining high yields to meet global food security needs while reducing the environmental impacts of input use, including fertilizer losses and other agrochemical applications such as herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides. Nitrogen inputs are central to this tension. They are indispensable for crop growth yet major drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient runoff, and escalating production costs. Addressing these intertwined pressures requires adaptive decision-support tools that are statistically principled, economically sustainable and interpretable for practitioners. We develop nonlinear model-based bandit algorithms as a framework for adaptive fertilizer management under uncertainty. Building on classical mechanistic yield-response models, our approach links algorithmic exploration-exploitation strategies directly to interpretable biological processes such as maximum yield and nutrient efficiency. This grounding makes recommendations transparent for practitioners while supporting cost-effective and sustainable input use. Methodologically, we establish regret and sample complexity results for the well-specified nonlinear case, examine robustness under misspecification, and evaluate the proposed methods through profit-oriented simulations and an offline replay case study on publicly available multi-site corn nitrogen field trials from the U.S. Midwest. The results show that incorporating biologically meaningful mechanistic structure enables faster learning and higher profit as evidence accumulates, with flexible nonparametric baselines providing a competitive alternative in pooled and heterogeneous settings. Our findings illustrate how interpretable, uncertainty-aware sequential decision rules can support economically sustainable fertilizer recommendations and contribute to more efficient agricultural input use.

农业决策非线性模型肥料优化

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