用知识蒸馏融合物理模型与AI,打造更智能的生态水文模拟系统。
Knowledge distillation as a pathway toward next-generation intelligent ecohydrological modeling systems
- 分三阶段将物理模型知识蒸馏到AI中,逐步提升智能化水平。
- 在萨米什流域验证,预测精度提升且能支持决策场景模拟。
- 适合生态水文、气候建模等需要可解释智能系统的研究者。
模拟生态水文过程对理解复杂环境系统并应对气候变化与人类压力至关重要。基于过程的模型具有物理真实性,但存在结构僵化、计算成本高和校准复杂等问题;机器学习方法高效灵活,却常缺乏可解释性和可迁移性。本文提出一个统一的三阶段框架,通过知识蒸馏将过程模型逐步融入人工智能系统:第一阶段(行为蒸馏)利用代理学习与模型简化,在降低计算成本的同时捕捉关键动态;第二阶段(结构蒸馏)将过程方程重构为图神经网络中的模块化组件,实现多尺度表征并无缝集成机器学习模型;第三阶段(认知蒸馏)采用眼-脑-手-口架构,嵌入专家推理与自适应决策能力于智能建模代理中。在萨米什流域的应用展示该框架可复现过程模型输出、提升预测精度,并支持情景决策。该框架为下一代智能生态水文建模系统提供了一条可扩展、可迁移的路径,亦可推广至其他过程驱动领域。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Simulating ecohydrological processes is essential for understanding complex environmental systems and guiding sustainable management amid accelerating climate change and human pressures. Process-based models provide physical realism but can suffer from structural rigidity, high computational costs, and complex calibration, while machine learning (ML) methods are efficient and flexible yet often lack interpretability and transferability. We propose a unified three-phase framework that integrates process-based models with ML and progressively embeds them into artificial intelligence (AI) through knowledge distillation. Phase I, behavioral distillation, enhances process models via surrogate learning and model simplification to capture key dynamics at lower computational cost. Phase II, structural distillation, reformulates process equations as modular components within a graph neural network (GNN), enabling multiscale representation and seamless integration with ML models. Phase III, cognitive distillation, embeds expert reasoning and adaptive decision-making into intelligent modeling agents using the Eyes-Brain-Hands-Mouth architecture. Demonstrations for the Samish watershed highlight the framework's applicability to ecohydrological modeling, showing that it can reproduce process-based model outputs, improve predictive accuracy, and support scenario-based decision-making. The framework offers a scalable and transferable pathway toward next-generation intelligent ecohydrological modeling systems, with the potential extension to other process-based domains.
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