arXiv:2509.01997cs.LGcs.AI2025-09被引 1

用两张图学未来订单分布,提升外卖供需预测精度

ACA-Net: Future Graph Learning for Logistical Demand-Supply Forecasting

  • 仅用实时与全局两张图替代长时序数据建模
  • 在真实平台验证,预测性能优于传统方法
  • 适合需要高精度调度的外卖系统研发者

物流供需预测需评估预估供给与预期需求的匹配程度,对即时配送平台的效率与服务质量至关重要,也是调度决策的关键指标。未来订单分布信息反映了即时配送中订单的分布情况,是提升物流供需预测性能的核心。现有研究通过时空分析方法从多个时间片建模未来订单分布,但在线配送场景下,该问题具有强随机性且对时序不敏感,传统方法难以高效准确捕捉。本文提出一种创新的时空学习模型,仅依赖两张图(实时图与全局图)即可学习未来订单分布信息,在性能上显著优于传统长时序时空方法。主要贡献包括:(1)相比传统长序列方法,引入实时图与全局图显著提升预测表现;(2)提出基于自适应未来图学习与创新交叉注意力机制的图网络框架(ACA-Net),有效提取未来订单分布特征,构建鲁棒的未来图,大幅改善供需压力预测效果;(3)所提方法已在真实生产环境验证有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Logistical demand-supply forecasting that evaluates the alignment between projected supply and anticipated demand, is essential for the efficiency and quality of on-demand food delivery platforms and serves as a key indicator for scheduling decisions. Future order distribution information, which reflects the distribution of orders in on-demand food delivery, is crucial for the performance of logistical demand-supply forecasting. Current studies utilize spatial-temporal analysis methods to model future order distribution information from serious time slices. However, learning future order distribution in online delivery platform is a time-series-insensitive problem with strong randomness. These approaches often struggle to effectively capture this information while remaining efficient. This paper proposes an innovative spatiotemporal learning model that utilizes only two graphs (ongoing and global) to learn future order distribution information, achieving superior performance compared to traditional spatial-temporal long-series methods. The main contributions are as follows: (1) The introduction of ongoing and global graphs in logistical demand-supply pressure forecasting compared to traditional long time series significantly enhances forecasting performance. (2) An innovative graph learning network framework using adaptive future graph learning and innovative cross attention mechanism (ACA-Net) is proposed to extract future order distribution information, effectively learning a robust future graph that substantially improves logistical demand-supply pressure forecasting outcomes. (3) The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated in real-world production environments.

供需预测图神经网络外卖系统未来图学习

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