LUCIE-3D用深度学习模拟三维气候,快速预测变暖与大气波动。
LUCIE-3D: A three-dimensional climate emulator for forced responses
- 基于SFNO架构,融合垂直分层与二氧化碳强迫变量。
- 复现地表增温、平流层降温等长期气候信号,捕捉关键波动现象。
- 训练仅需5小时,适合快速实验与耦合气候研究。
我们提出LUCIE-3D,一种轻量级三维气候模拟器,可捕捉大气垂直结构,响应气候变化强迫,并保持长期计算稳定性。在原始LUCIE-2D基础上,采用球面傅里叶神经算子(SFNO)骨干网络,基于30年ERA5再分析数据(8个垂直σ层)训练。模型纳入大气CO2作为强迫变量,可选加入预定海表温度(SST)以模拟海气耦合。结果表明,LUCIE-3D成功复现气候均值、变率及长期变化信号,包括高浓度CO2下的地表增温和平流层冷却;还捕捉到赤道开尔文波、梅纳德-朱利安振荡及环状模等动力过程,极端事件统计行为亦具可信度。尽管训练时间长于其2D版本,但仍在四块GPU上于五小时内完成。其稳定性、物理一致性与易用性使其成为快速实验、消融研究及耦合气候动态探索的有力工具,潜在应用涵盖古气候研究与未来地球系统模拟。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce LUCIE-3D, a lightweight three-dimensional climate emulator designed to capture the vertical structure of the atmosphere, respond to climate change forcings, and maintain computational efficiency with long-term stability. Building on the original LUCIE-2D framework, LUCIE-3D employs a Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) backbone and is trained on 30 years of ERA5 reanalysis data spanning eight vertical σ-levels. The model incorporates atmospheric CO2 as a forcing variable and optionally integrates prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) to simulate coupled ocean--atmosphere dynamics. Results demonstrate that LUCIE-3D successfully reproduces climatological means, variability, and long-term climate change signals, including surface warming and stratospheric cooling under increasing CO2 concentrations. The model further captures key dynamical processes such as equatorial Kelvin waves, the Madden--Julian Oscillation, and annular modes, while showing credible behavior in the statistics of extreme events. Despite requiring longer training than its 2D predecessor, LUCIE-3D remains efficient, training in under five hours on four GPUs. Its combination of stability, physical consistency, and accessibility makes it a valuable tool for rapid experimentation, ablation studies, and the exploration of coupled climate dynamics, with potential applications extending to paleoclimate research and future Earth system emulation.
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