用图注意力模型联合建模河流网络时空洪水预测,精度高且可解释。
HydroGAT: Distributed Heterogeneous Graph Attention Transformer for Spatiotemporal Flood Prediction
- 构建包含河网物理流向的异构图,融合空间与时间依赖关系。
- 在两个美国中西部流域实现最高0.97的NSE、0.96的KGE和±5%以内偏差。
- 支持高分辨率训练,分布式架构可扩展至64张A100显卡,提速15倍。
精准洪水预测对水资源管理至关重要,需同时建模局部动态径流驱动因素(如降雨峰值、基流趋势)和河网复杂空间互动。传统数据驱动方法(如卷积网络、序列模型)忽略区域拓扑结构。图神经网络(GNN)沿河网传播信息,适合模拟水文路径,但现有先进模型因图规模增大导致训练成本激增,常将像素降采样为粗略流域多边形。此外,多数方法将时空依赖分离处理,仅在空间图或时间序列上应用GNN或变压器,难以同步捕捉关键时空交互。本文提出异构流域图,将每个地表与河段像素设为节点,通过物理水文流向及跨流域关系连接。设计HydroGAT模型,自适应学习局部时间重要性及最关键的上游影响位置。在两个美国中西部流域、五种基准架构下评估,模型在逐小时流量预测中达到最高0.97 NSE、0.96 KGE,偏误控制在±5%以内,并生成可解释的关注热力图,揭示稀疏而有结构的跨流域影响。为支持高分辨率流域级训练,开发分布式数据并行管道,可在NERSC Perlmutter超算上扩展至64张NVIDIA A100 GPU,实现跨机器最高15倍加速。代码已开源:https://github.com/swapp-lab/HydroGAT。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate flood forecasting remains a challenge for water-resource management, as it demands modeling of local, time-varying runoff drivers (e.g., rainfall-induced peaks, baseflow trends) and complex spatial interactions across a river network. Traditional data-driven approaches, such as convolutional networks and sequence-based models, ignore topological information about the region. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) propagate information exactly along the river network, which is ideal for learning hydrological routing. However, state-of-the-art GNN-based flood prediction models collapse pixels to coarse catchment polygons as the cost of training explodes with graph size and higher resolution. Furthermore, most existing methods treat spatial and temporal dependencies separately, either applying GNNs solely on spatial graphs or transformers purely on temporal sequences, thus failing to simultaneously capture spatiotemporal interactions critical for accurate flood prediction. We introduce a heterogenous basin graph where every land and river pixel is a node connected by physical hydrological flow directions and inter-catchment relationships. We propose HydroGAT, a spatiotemporal network that adaptively learns local temporal importance and the most influential upstream locations. Evaluated in two Midwestern US basins and across five baseline architectures, our model achieves higher NSE (up to 0.97), improved KGE (up to 0.96), and low bias (PBIAS within $\pm$5%) in hourly discharge prediction, while offering interpretable attention maps that reveal sparse, structured intercatchment influences. To support high-resolution basin-scale training, we develop a distributed data-parallel pipeline that scales efficiently up to 64 NVIDIA A100 GPUs on NERSC Perlmutter supercomputer, demonstrating up to 15x speedup across machines. Our code is available at https://github.com/swapp-lab/HydroGAT.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。