提出概率稳定信念更新的完整刻画,揭示其逻辑特性与应用。
Probabilistically stable revision and comparative probability: a representation theorem and applications
- 用选择函数语义刻画概率稳定信念更新机制
- 给出有限概率空间下最强稳定集算子的可表示条件
- 适用于投票博弈与偏好理论等场景
Leitgeb(2013)提出的信念稳定性规则通过概率稳定命题——即主体赋予持久高置信度的命题——来刻画全或无的信念。该规则生成一类概率稳定的信念更新算子,描述了主体在遵守稳定性规则的前提下通过贝叶斯条件化更新信念时的认知动态。本文证明了一个表示定理,对这类概率稳定的信念更新算子给出了完整的刻画,并为非单调的概率稳定信念更新逻辑提供了‘定性’的选择函数语义。基于比较概率序理论,该结果给出了一个选择函数在有限概率空间上可表示为最强稳定集算子的充要条件。所得到的逻辑具有强单调性,但不满足AGM信念更新公理,仅满足极弱形式的案例推理。在证明主定理过程中,我们还得到了两个独立有趣的比较概率理论结果:第一个给出了严格与非严格比较概率序联合表示的充要条件;第二个提供了一种公理化形如“事件A至少是事件B的k倍可能”的比例比较逻辑的方法。此外,我们指出该主结果在简单投票博弈和揭示偏好理论中的两个应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The stability rule for belief, advocated by Leitgeb [Annals of Pure and Applied Logic 164, 2013], is a rule for rational acceptance that captures categorical belief in terms of $\textit{probabilistically stable propositions}$: propositions to which the agent assigns resiliently high credence. The stability rule generates a class of $\textit{probabilistically stable belief revision}$ operators, which capture the dynamics of belief that result from an agent updating their credences through Bayesian conditioning while complying with the stability rule for their all-or-nothing beliefs. In this paper, we prove a representation theorem that yields a complete characterisation of such probabilistically stable revision operators and provides a `qualitative' selection function semantics for the (non-monotonic) logic of probabilistically stable belief revision. Drawing on the theory of comparative probability orders, this result gives necessary and sufficient conditions for a selection function to be representable as a strongest-stable-set operator on a finite probability space. The resulting logic of probabilistically stable belief revision exhibits strong monotonicity properties while failing the AGM belief revision postulates and satisfying only very weak forms of case reasoning. In showing the main theorem, we prove two results of independent interest to the theory of comparative probability: the first provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the joint representation of a pair of (respectively, strict and non-strict) comparative probability orders. The second result provides a method for axiomatising the logic of ratio comparisons of the form ``event $A$ is at least $k$ times more likely than event $B$''. In addition to these measurement-theoretic applications, we point out two applications of our main result to the theory of simple voting games and to revealed preference theory.
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