量化飓风停电对不同地区社会影响的差异，揭示低收入区负担更重。
Quantifying the Social Costs of Power Outages and Restoration Disparities Across Four U.S. Hurricanes
- 将停电时长与人口数据结合，用剥夺度衡量社会影响。
- 低收入地区停电恢复慢，个体承受更大损失，恢复速度是关键因素。
- 可为公平恢复规划和韧性投资提供空间决策支持。
灾难影响具有多重维度：人口密集区总负担更大，而人口稀疏但受灾严重的地区个体损失更重。本研究提出一种框架，将客户加权停电暴露转化为剥夺度量，整合福利指标与三项恢复指标——每客户平均停电天数、恢复持续时间、相对恢复率，基于连续EAGLE I观测数据，并关联到邮区编码统计区域的人口统计信息。应用于2024年德克萨斯州贝里尔、佛罗里达州赫琳、佛罗里达州米尔顿及2021年路易斯安那州伊达四场飓风，该标准化流程首次实现跨事件、细粒度的停电影响评估。结果表明：影响呈现累退性，低收入地区负担更重；机制分析显示剥夺度随恢复时间延长而上升，随恢复速率加快而下降；可解释建模识别出恢复时长为首要驱动因素；聚类分析揭示了传统可靠性指标未捕捉到的恢复类型。该框架提供可迁移的影响评估方法，跨事件对比证据揭示恢复动态与社会结果的关联，并生成可操作的空间分析，支持公平导向的恢复规划与韧性投资。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The multifaceted nature of disaster impact shows that densely populated areas contribute more to aggregate burden, while sparsely populated but heavily affected regions suffer disproportionately at the individual level. This study introduces a framework for quantifying the societal impacts of power outages by translating customer weighted outage exposure into deprivation measures, integrating welfare metrics with three recovery indicators, average outage days per customer, restoration duration, and relative restoration rate, computed from sequential EAGLE I observations and linked to Zip Code Tabulation Area demographics. Applied to four United States hurricanes, Beryl 2024 Texas, Helene 2024 Florida, Milton 2024 Florida, and Ida 2021 Louisiana, this standardized pipeline provides the first cross event, fine scale evaluation of outage impacts and their drivers. Results demonstrate regressive patterns with greater burdens in lower income areas, mechanistic analysis shows deprivation increases with longer restoration durations and decreases with faster restoration rates, explainable modeling identifies restoration duration as the dominant driver, and clustering reveals distinct recovery typologies not captured by conventional reliability metrics. This framework delivers a transferable method for assessing outage impacts and equity, comparative cross event evidence linking restoration dynamics to social outcomes, and actionable spatial analyses that support equity informed restoration planning and resilience investment.
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