融合自回归与柯尔莫哥洛夫网络,提升时序预测精度
AR-KAN: Autoregressive-Weight-Enhanced Kolmogorov-Arnold Network for Time Series Forecasting
- 用预训练自回归模块捕捉时间记忆,配合柯尔莫哥洛夫网络处理非线性
- 在几乎周期信号上误差上限低于传统KAN,实测性能优于主流模型
- 适合需要高精度时序建模的场景,如金融、气象预测
传统神经网络难以捕捉复杂信号的频谱结构。傅里叶神经网络(FNN)尝试通过嵌入傅里叶级数成分来解决,但许多真实信号为近乎周期且频率不可公度,带来额外挑战。受ARIMA在时序预测中仍优于大语言模型的启发,我们扩展比较至神经预测器,发现ARIMA仍具明显优势。受此启发,提出自回归加权增强的柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(AR-KAN)。基于泛化盲视映射定理,该模型结合预训练自回归模块以保留时间特征并减少冗余,同时使用柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(KAN)进行非线性表示。理论证明:自回归模块能保持关键时间特征并降低冗余;在概率意义上,AR-KAN的近似误差上界小于传统KAN。实验表明,无论在合成的几乎周期函数还是真实世界数据集上,AR-KAN均显著优于现有模型。结果验证了其作为时序预测鲁棒有效框架的潜力。代码已开源:https://github.com/ChenZeng001/AR-KAN。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traditional neural networks struggle to capture the spectral structure of complex signals. Fourier neural networks (FNNs) attempt to address this by embedding Fourier series components, yet many real-world signals are almost-periodic with non-commensurate frequencies, posing additional challenges. Building on prior work showing that ARIMA outperforms large language models (LLMs) for time series forecasting, we extend the comparison to neural predictors and find that ARIMA still maintains a clear advantage. Inspired by this finding, we propose the Autoregressive-Weight-Enhanced Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (AR-KAN). Based in the Universal Myopic Mapping Theorem, it integrates a pre-trained AR module for temporal memory with a KAN for nonlinear representation. We prove that the AR module preserves essential temporal features while reducing redundancy, and that the upper bound of the approximation error for AR-KAN is smaller than that for KAN in a probabilistic sense. Experimental results also demonstrate that AR-KAN delivers exceptional performance compared to existing models, both on synthetic almost-periodic functions and real-world datasets. These results highlight AR-KAN as a robust and effective framework for time series forecasting. Our code is available at https://github.com/ChenZeng001/AR-KAN.
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