arXiv:2509.03816physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-09被引 2

用预训练大模型微调气候模型中的重力波参数化,提升预测精度。

Finetuning AI Foundation Models to Develop Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations: A Case Study on Atmospheric Gravity Waves

  • 用23亿参数大模型的编码器-解码器结构,从高分辨率再分析数据中学习重力波通量。
  • 微调后模型在全大气层表现更优,海林格距离降至0.06(基线为0.11)。
  • 成果可复用于其他气候过程,推动基于观测的物理准确参数化发展。

全球气候模型需对无法充分解析的大气-海洋过程(如重力波、云、湿对流和湍流)进行亚网格尺度闭合处理,这些未解析过程的参数化是模型不确定性的重要来源。本文提出一种新方法:通过微调预训练的AI基础模型(FM),开发小尺度气候过程的机器学习参数化。我们采用了一个23亿参数的基础模型(NASA与IBM研究的Prithvi WxC)中的编码器-解码器结构,该模型包含大气演变的潜在概率表征。通过在10倍更高分辨率的再分析数据上微调,使该模型学习到重力波通量,从而为粗分辨率气候模型提供参数化。与一个基于注意力机制的U-Net基线模型相比,微调后的模型在月平均值和瞬时演化上均表现出更优的预测性能,覆盖范围甚至超出原始预训练区域。性能提升以海林格距离量化:基线为0.11,微调模型为0.06。结果表明,基础模型具备高度通用性和可复用性,可用于多种大气与气候相关任务,有望推动基于观测、物理准确的地球系统过程参数化的发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Global climate models parameterize a range of atmospheric-oceanic processes like gravity waves, clouds, moist convection, and turbulence that cannot be sufficiently resolved. These subgrid-scale closures for unresolved processes are a leading source of model uncertainty. Here, we present a new approach to developing machine learning parameterizations of small-scale climate processes by fine-tuning a pre-trained AI foundation model (FM). FMs are largely unexplored in climate research. A pre-trained encoder-decoder from a 2.3 billion parameter FM (NASA and IBM Research's Prithvi WxC) -- which contains a latent probabilistic representation of atmospheric evolution -- is fine-tuned (or reused) to create a deep learning parameterization for atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The parameterization captures GW effects for a coarse-resolution climate model by learning the fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis with 10 times finer resolution. A comparison of monthly averages and instantaneous evolution with a machine learning model baseline (an Attention U-Net) reveals superior predictive performance of the FM parameterization throughout the atmosphere, even in regions excluded from pre-training. This performance boost is quantified using the Hellinger distance, which is 0.11 for the baseline and 0.06 for the fine-tuned model. Our findings emphasize the versatility and reusability of FMs, which could be used to accomplish a range of atmosphere- and climate-related applications, leading the way for the creation of observations-driven and physically accurate parameterizations for more earth-system processes.

气候建模大模型参数化重力波

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