arXiv:2509.04782cs.LGcs.AI2025-09被引 1

将经典统计模型思想融入Transformer,提升时序预测精度与效率

VARMA-Enhanced Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

  • 用自回归与滑动平均机制在局部片段建模时序特征
  • 引入时间门控注意力,增强查询的上下文感知能力
  • 适合需要高精度时序建模的研究者与工业应用

基于Transformer的模型已显著推动时序预测发展。近期工作如仅使用交叉注意力的时序Transformer(CATS)表明,移除自注意力可提升模型准确率与效率。然而,这类简化架构可能忽略经典统计模型(如向量自回归滑动平均模型,VARMA)所擅长的细粒度局部时序依赖。为此,我们提出VARMAformer,一种融合交叉注意力高效性与经典时序分析原理的新架构。模型引入两项关键创新:(1) 专用的VARMA启发特征提取器(VFE),在片段级别显式建模自回归(AR)与滑动平均(MA)模式;(2) 变革性增强注意力(VE-atten)机制,通过时间门控使查询更具上下文感知。通过将经典洞见融入现代主干网络,VARMAformer同时捕捉全局长程依赖与局部统计结构。在多个主流基准数据集上的大量实验表明,该模型持续优于现有最先进方法。本工作验证了将经典统计洞察整合进现代深度学习框架对时序预测的重大价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Transformer-based models have significantly advanced time series forecasting. Recent work, like the Cross-Attention-only Time Series transformer (CATS), shows that removing self-attention can make the model more accurate and efficient. However, these streamlined architectures may overlook the fine-grained, local temporal dependencies effectively captured by classical statistical models like Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average model (VARMA). To address this gap, we propose VARMAformer, a novel architecture that synergizes the efficiency of a cross-attention-only framework with the principles of classical time series analysis. Our model introduces two key innovations: (1) a dedicated VARMA-inspired Feature Extractor (VFE) that explicitly models autoregressive (AR) and moving-average (MA) patterns at the patch level, and (2) a VARMA-Enhanced Attention (VE-atten) mechanism that employs a temporal gate to make queries more context-aware. By fusing these classical insights into a modern backbone, VARMAformer captures both global, long-range dependencies and local, statistical structures. Through extensive experiments on widely-used benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. Our work validates the significant benefit of integrating classical statistical insights into modern deep learning frameworks for time series forecasting.

时序预测Transformer统计建模注意力机制

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