arXiv:2509.05398cs.CYcs.LG2025-09

用综合风险分值识别尼日利亚疫情高危地区,助力资源精准投放。

Unmasking COVID-19 Vulnerability in Nigeria: Mapping Risks Beyond Urban Hotspots

  • 构建融合人口、贫困、医疗和年龄的四维风险评分体系。
  • 拉各斯风险分高达673.47,占全国病例35.4%,远超全国均值28.16。
  • 成果可指导防疫资源分配,适合公共卫生决策者参考。

自2020年2月27日报告首例新冠肺炎病例以来,尼日利亚公共卫生系统面临严峻挑战。本研究通过整合人口密度(权重0.2)、贫困率(0.4)、医疗可及性(0.3)和年龄风险(0.1),构建复合风险评分,结合每10万人标准化病例率进行调整,评估各州脆弱性。利用地理信息系统(GIS)对高、中、低密度区进行空间分析,识别疫情热点。结果显示,拉各斯等高密度城市风险分最高(673.47),占全国病例35.4%,远超全国平均值28.16。该结果与全球及本地研究一致,如美国疾控中心社会脆弱性指数框架。谷歌趋势数据反映公众健康意识差异,作为补充分析。风险评分可为政策制定者提供资源分配优先级参考,尽管存在数据缺失和农村漏报问题,仍需进一步研究。该框架可扩展至其他传染病,在资源有限环境中为未来大流行提供借鉴。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented significant challenges in Nigeria's public health systems since the first case reported on February 27, 2020. This study investigates key factors that contribute to state vulnerability, quantifying them through a composite risk score integrating population density (weight 0.2), poverty (0.4), access to healthcare (0.3), and age risk (0.1), adjusted by normalized case rates per 100,000. States were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-density areas to analyze trends and identify hotspots using geographic information system (GIS) mapping. The findings reveal that high-density urban areas, such as Lagos, accounting for 35.4% of national cases, had the highest risk scores (Lagos: 673.47 vs. national average: 28.16). These results align with global and local studies on the spatial variability of COVID-19 in Nigeria, including international frameworks such as the CDC Social Vulnerability Index. Google Trends data highlight variations in public health awareness, serving as a supplementary analysis to contextualize vulnerability. The risk score provides a prioritization tool for policymakers to allocate testing, vaccines, and healthcare resources to high-risk areas, though data gaps and rural underreporting call for further research. This framework can extend to other infectious diseases, offering lessons for future pandemics in resource-limited settings.

疫情风险空间分析公共卫生

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