发现时间序列特性与模型性能的关联,自动推荐最佳预测模型。
ARIES: Relation Assessment and Model Recommendation for Deep Time Series Forecasting
- 构建含多种模式的合成数据集,量化时间序列属性
- 实测50+模型,揭示数据特性与模型表现的明确关联
- 首个可解释的深度时序预测模型推荐系统,适合实际应用
深度时序预测模型近年进展显著,其性能可能与季节性、非平稳性等数据特性密切相关。然而现有基准数据集缺乏多样且定义清晰的时间模式,难以系统评估此关联。同时,缺乏有效的模型推荐方法,导致在不同场景下测试模型耗费大量时间和成本。为此,我们提出ARIES框架,用于评估时序特性与建模策略的关系,并为真实时序数据推荐深度预测模型。首先,构建包含多种显著模式的合成数据集,并设计完整系统计算时序属性;其次,对超过50种预测模型进行广泛基准测试,建立时序特性与建模策略间的关联。实验结果表明存在明显相关性。基于此,我们提出首个可解释的深度时序预测模型推荐器,能为真实时序提供合理建议。ARIES是首个系统建立时序数据属性与建模策略关系的研究,同时实现模型推荐功能。代码已公开:https://github.com/blisky-li/ARIES。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent advancements in deep learning models for time series forecasting have been significant. These models often leverage fundamental time series properties such as seasonality and non-stationarity, which may suggest an intrinsic link between model performance and data properties. However, existing benchmark datasets fail to offer diverse and well-defined temporal patterns, restricting the systematic evaluation of such connections. Additionally, there is no effective model recommendation approach, leading to high time and cost expenditures when testing different architectures across different downstream applications. For those reasons, we propose ARIES, a framework for assessing relation between time series properties and modeling strategies, and for recommending deep forcasting models for realistic time series. First, we construct a synthetic dataset with multiple distinct patterns, and design a comprehensive system to compute the properties of time series. Next, we conduct an extensive benchmarking of over 50 forecasting models, and establish the relationship between time series properties and modeling strategies. Our experimental results reveal a clear correlation. Based on these findings, we propose the first deep forecasting model recommender, capable of providing interpretable suggestions for real-world time series. In summary, ARIES is the first study to establish the relations between the properties of time series data and modeling strategies, while also implementing a model recommendation system. The code is available at: https://github.com/blisky-li/ARIES.
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