arXiv:2509.06311cs.LG2025-09被引 5

轻量级模型零样本预测风电,无需微调即可跨区域通用。

WindFM: An Open-Source Foundation Model for Zero-Shot Wind Power Forecasting

  • 用离散化生成框架将气象数据转为分层令牌,统一建模风力发电动态。
  • 810万参数模型在1500亿时间步数据上训练,零样本性能领先。
  • 跨大陆数据仍表现稳健,适合电力系统、能源算法研究者使用。

高质量风电预测对现代电网运行至关重要。现有数据驱动方法或需为特定站点训练模型,难以泛化;或依赖通用时间序列基础模型微调,难融入能源领域特有数据。本文提出WindFM,一种专用于概率风电预测的轻量级生成式基础模型。WindFM采用离散化-生成框架:先用专用时间序列分词器将多变量连续观测转化为分层离散令牌;再通过仅解码器的Transformer,在这些令牌序列上自回归预训练,学习风力发电动力学的通用表示。基于包含约1500亿时间步、超过12.6万个站点的WIND Toolkit数据集,WindFM建立了对大气条件与发电输出复杂关系的深层理解。大量实验表明,该紧凑模型(810万参数)在确定性与概率性任务上均实现零样本最优性能,超越专用模型和更大基础模型,且无需任何微调。尤其在不同大洲的分布外数据上仍具强适应性,证明其学习表征的鲁棒性与可迁移性。预训练模型已开源:https://github.com/shiyu-coder/WindFM。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

High-quality wind power forecasting is crucial for the operation of modern power grids. However, prevailing data-driven paradigms either train a site-specific model which cannot generalize to other locations or rely on fine-tuning of general-purpose time series foundation models which are difficult to incorporate domain-specific data in the energy sector. This paper introduces WindFM, a lightweight and generative Foundation Model designed specifically for probabilistic wind power forecasting. WindFM employs a discretize-and-generate framework. A specialized time-series tokenizer first converts continuous multivariate observations into discrete, hierarchical tokens. Subsequently, a decoder-only Transformer learns a universal representation of wind generation dynamics by autoregressively pre-training on these token sequences. Using the comprehensive WIND Toolkit dataset comprising approximately 150 billion time steps from more than 126,000 sites, WindFM develops a foundational understanding of the complex interplay between atmospheric conditions and power output. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our compact 8.1M parameter model achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on both deterministic and probabilistic tasks, outperforming specialized models and larger foundation models without any fine-tuning. In particular, WindFM exhibits strong adaptiveness under out-of-distribution data from a different continent, demonstrating the robustness and transferability of its learned representations. Our pre-trained model is publicly available at https://github.com/shiyu-coder/WindFM.

风电预测基础模型零样本能源AI

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