arXiv:2509.06385cs.LGcs.AI2025-09中稿 · IEEE ICDM 2025

用服务中行为数据提升服务前风险预测准确率

Beyond the Pre-Service Horizon: Infusing In-Service Behavior for Improved Financial Risk Forecasting

  • 通过知识蒸馏将服务中行为数据迁移至服务前模型
  • 在腾讯支付数据上实现离线与线上效果显著提升
  • 适合金融风控、用户信用评估场景使用

传统金融风险管控分服务前评估与服务中违约检测两阶段,常独立建模。本文提出多粒度知识蒸馏框架(MGKD),通过教师模型(基于历史服务中数据训练)指导学生模型(基于服务前数据训练),利用服务中产生的软标签增强学生模型的风险预测能力。引入粗粒度、细粒度及自蒸馏策略,对齐师生模型的表示与预测,强化违约样本表征,并迁移关键违约行为模式。同时采用重加权策略缓解少数类偏差。在腾讯移动支付大规模真实数据集上,该方法在离线与在线场景均表现优异。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Typical financial risk management involves distinct phases for pre-service risk assessment and in-service default detection, often modeled separately. This paper proposes a novel framework, Multi-Granularity Knowledge Distillation (abbreviated as MGKD), aimed at improving pre-service risk prediction through the integration of in-service user behavior data. MGKD follows the idea of knowledge distillation, where the teacher model, trained on historical in-service data, guides the student model, which is trained on pre-service data. By using soft labels derived from in-service data, the teacher model helps the student model improve its risk prediction prior to service activation. Meanwhile, a multi-granularity distillation strategy is introduced, including coarse-grained, fine-grained, and self-distillation, to align the representations and predictions of the teacher and student models. This approach not only reinforces the representation of default cases but also enables the transfer of key behavioral patterns associated with defaulters from the teacher to the student model, thereby improving the overall performance of pre-service risk assessment. Moreover, we adopt a re-weighting strategy to mitigate the model's bias towards the minority class. Experimental results on large-scale real-world datasets from Tencent Mobile Payment demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in both offline and online scenarios.

风险预测知识蒸馏用户行为

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