用可解释的模型,基于穿戴设备数据个性化预测睡眠质量。
Individualized and Interpretable Sleep Forecasting via a Two-Stage Adaptive Spatial-Temporal Model
- 分层结构提取多尺度生理变化与长期趋势。
- 三日输入+一日预测时RMSE达0.216,长周期也表现稳定。
- 适合关注睡眠健康及可解释性分析的个人与医疗用户。
睡眠质量影响身心健康,因此医疗人员和个体需要可访问且可靠的预测工具以开展预防干预。本文提出一种可解释、个性化的自适应时空模型,用于预测睡眠质量。设计分层架构,包含并行一维卷积(不同核大小)与空洞卷积,分别捕捉快速生理变化与慢速趋势;提取特征后通过通道注意力机制,学习为每位个体强调最具预测性的变量;再经双向LSTM与自注意力联合建模局部序列动态与全局时间依赖。最后采用两阶段自适应策略,确保表征有效迁移至新用户。实验使用五种输入窗口(3,5,7,9,11天)与五种预测窗口(1,3,5,7,9天),结果表明模型持续优于基线方法(如LSTM、Informer、PatchTST、TimesNet)。最佳性能出现在三日输入、一日预测时,RMSE为0.216;即使在三日预测窗口下,RMSE仍达0.257,体现实际应用价值。可解释性分析显示不同特征对睡眠的影响机制。该框架在稀疏可穿戴设备数据下,提供鲁棒、自适应且可解释的个性化睡眠预测方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Sleep quality impacts well-being. Therefore, healthcare providers and individuals need accessible and reliable forecasting tools for preventive interventions. This paper introduces an interpretable, individualized adaptive spatial-temporal model for predicting sleep quality. We designed a hierarchical architecture, consisting of parallel 1D convolutions with varying kernel sizes and dilated convolution, which extracts multi-resolution temporal patterns-short kernels capture rapid physiological changes, while larger kernels and dilation model slower trends. The extracted features are then refined through channel attention, which learns to emphasize the most predictive variables for each individual, followed by bidirectional LSTM and self-attention that jointly model both local sequential dynamics and global temporal dependencies. Finally, a two-stage adaptation strategy ensures the learned representations transfer effectively to new users. We conducted various experiments with five input window sizes (3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 days) and five prediction window sizes (1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 days). Our model consistently outperformed time series forecasting baseline approaches, including LSTM, Informer, PatchTST, and TimesNet. The best performance was achieved with a three-day input window and a one-day prediction window, yielding an RMSE of 0.216. Furthermore, the model demonstrated good predictive performance even for longer forecasting horizons (e.g., with a 0.257 RMSE for a three-day prediction window), highlighting its practical utility for real-world applications. We also conducted an explainability analysis to examine how different features influence sleep quality. These findings proved that the proposed framework offers a robust, adaptive, and explainable solution for personalized sleep forecasting using sparse data from commercial wearable devices.
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