arXiv:2509.07108stat.MLcs.LG2025-09

提出可解释的生存分析模型,揭示变量与疾病结局的关联规律。

ADHAM: Additive Deep Hazard Analysis Mixtures for Interpretable Survival Regression

  • 基于潜变量分组的加性风险模型,识别不同人群的生存模式。
  • 通过后处理合并相似群体,减少冗余子群,提升可解释性。
  • 适合医疗决策场景,兼顾预测精度与结果透明度。

生存分析是建模医疗中时间至事件结果的基础工具。近年来,神经网络方法显著提升了预测性能,但多数模型缺乏对暴露因素与结局之间关联的可解释性,难以满足临床决策需求。为此,我们提出可解释的加性深度风险混合模型(ADHAM)。该模型假设存在条件潜变量结构,定义若干子群,每个子群由特定协变量的风险函数组合表征。为确定子群数量,引入训练后优化策略,通过合并相似子群降低等效潜变量数量。在真实世界数据集上进行的广泛实验表明,ADHAM在群体、子群及个体层面均具备良好可解释性,揭示了暴露与结局间的新型关联。同时,其预测性能与现有顶尖生存基准相当,提供了一种可扩展且可解释的医疗时间至事件预测方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Survival analysis is a fundamental tool for modeling time-to-event outcomes in healthcare. Recent advances have introduced flexible neural network approaches for improved predictive performance. However, most of these models do not provide interpretable insights into the association between exposures and the modeled outcomes, a critical requirement for decision-making in clinical practice. To address this limitation, we propose Additive Deep Hazard Analysis Mixtures (ADHAM), an interpretable additive survival model. ADHAM assumes a conditional latent structure that defines subgroups, each characterized by a combination of covariate-specific hazard functions. To select the number of subgroups, we introduce a post-training refinement that reduces the number of equivalent latent subgroups by merging similar groups. We perform comprehensive studies to demonstrate ADHAM's interpretability at the population, subgroup, and individual levels. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that ADHAM provides novel insights into the association between exposures and outcomes. Further, ADHAM remains on par with existing state-of-the-art survival baselines in terms of predictive performance, offering a scalable and interpretable approach to time-to-event prediction in healthcare.

生存分析可解释性医疗AI潜变量模型

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