arXiv:2509.07123stat.MLcs.LG2025-09

用图神经网络建模出行方式选择中的选项依赖关系,提升预测精度。

Alternative Graph Neural Networks: Synergizing GEV Models and Deep Learning for Travel Mode Choice Modeling

  • 构建选项图,用节点和边表示选择项及其依赖关系。
  • 在伦敦和芝加哥数据集上显著优于基准模型,提升明显。
  • 适合研究出行行为、需建模选项间依赖的学者与工程师。

广义极值模型能捕捉离散选择中选项间的依赖关系,但要求依赖关系预先设定、对称且对所有人一致。近年来将离散选择模型与深度神经网络结合提升了预测性能,但仍无法在神经架构中显式表达选项依赖。为此,我们提出选项图——节点代表选择项,边编码其依赖关系——并设计基于图神经网络的替代方案模型(Alt-GNN),将选项依赖嵌入统一框架。理论上,Alt-GNN涵盖多项对数几率、嵌套对数几率和ASU-DNN作为特例,支持创新设计如嵌套Alt-GNN、全连接Alt-GNN和注意力Alt-GNN。Alt-GNN符合随机效用最大化理论,通过选项图施加行为约束,并提供效用函数的新图视角。实证上,在伦敦和芝加哥的出行方式选择数据集上,因灵活的选项图设计和庞大的超参数空间,Alt-GNN显著优于所有基准模型。即使是最简单的变体——嵌套Alt-GNN——也推广了嵌套对数几率模型,保持其双层替代特性,使原本无约束的深层网络行为模式获得图结构的行为约束。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Generalized extreme value models capture dependence among choice alternatives in discrete choice modeling, but require this dependence to be predefined, symmetric, and shared uniformly across individuals. Recent efforts to synergize discrete choice models with deep neural networks have improved predictive performance but still cannot explicitly represent alternative dependence within neural architectures. To address these gaps, we introduce the alternative graph -- a graph in which nodes represent choice alternatives and edges encode their dependence -- and propose Alternative Graph Neural Networks (Alt-GNNs), a family of GNN-based discrete choice models that embed alternative dependence within a unified framework. Theoretically, Alt-GNNs incorporate multinomial logit, nested logit, and ASU-DNN as special cases and enable innovative model designs, including Nested Alt-GNN, Complete Alt-GNN, and Attention Alt-GNN. Alt-GNNs are consistent with random utility maximization theory, enforce behavioral constraints through alternative graphs, and offer a novel graph-based interpretation of utility functions. Empirically, on two travel mode choice datasets from London and Chicago, Alt-GNNs significantly improve predictive performance over all benchmark models in mode choice modeling because of their flexible alternative graph design and vast hyperparameter space. Even the simplest Alt-GNN variant -- Nested Alt-GNN -- generalizes the nested logit model while preserving its unique two-layer substitution properties, enabling graph-based behavioral constraints over otherwise unconstrained behavioral patterns from deep neural networks.

图神经网络出行选择行为建模

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