arXiv:2509.08467cs.LGq-fin.GN2025-09被引 1

用可解释的深度学习模型提升保险定价精度与透明度。

An Interpretable Deep Learning Model for General Insurance Pricing

  • 为每个变量和交互项分配独立神经网络,保证可解释性。
  • 在真实与合成数据上均优于传统方法,预测更准。
  • 适合需要透明决策的保险机构或监管场景。

本文提出一种名为精算神经加法模型(Actuarial Neural Additive Model)的内在可解释深度学习模型,用于通用保险定价。该模型为每个协变量及成对交互项分配专用神经网络(或子网络),独立学习其对输出的影响,并通过多种架构约束实现关键可解释性(如稀疏性)与实际需求(如平滑性、单调性)。模型建立在扎实的理论基础上,明确定义了保险领域的可解释性并构建了严格的数学框架。在合成与真实保险数据集上,与传统精算及前沿机器学习方法相比,本模型在多数情况下表现出更强的预测精度,同时提供完全透明的内部逻辑,验证了其优异的可解释性与预测能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper introduces the Actuarial Neural Additive Model, an inherently interpretable deep learning model for general insurance pricing that offers fully transparent and interpretable results while retaining the strong predictive power of neural networks. This model assigns a dedicated neural network (or subnetwork) to each individual covariate and pairwise interaction term to independently learn its impact on the modeled output while implementing various architectural constraints to allow for essential interpretability (e.g. sparsity) and practical requirements (e.g. smoothness, monotonicity) in insurance applications. The development of our model is grounded in a solid foundation, where we establish a concrete definition of interpretability within the insurance context, complemented by a rigorous mathematical framework. Comparisons in terms of prediction accuracy are made with traditional actuarial and state-of-the-art machine learning methods using both synthetic and real insurance datasets. The results show that the proposed model outperforms other methods in most cases while offering complete transparency in its internal logic, underscoring the strong interpretability and predictive capability.

保险定价可解释模型深度学习

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