用专家集成提升天气预测精度,计算成本更低。
MoWE : A Mixture of Weather Experts
- 通过视觉变换器门控网络动态加权多个预报模型输出。
- 2天预报上比最优单个模型低10%的均方根误差。
- 适合想高效利用现有先进模型的研究者和应用团队。
数据驱动的天气模型近年来达到顶尖性能,但进展已趋平缓。本文提出一种新型混合专家(MoWE)范式,不构建新预报器,而是最优融合现有模型输出。MoWE模型训练所需计算资源远低于各独立专家。其采用基于视觉变换器的门控网络,在每个网格点上根据预报时效动态学习各“专家”模型的贡献权重。该方法生成的合成确定性预报在均方根误差(RMSE)上优于任一单一组件。实验表明,该方法在2天预报时段上比最优AI天气模型降低最高达10%的RMSE,显著超越各单独专家及简单平均结果。本工作提供了一种计算高效、可扩展的策略,通过最大化优质预报模型潜力,推动数据驱动天气预测的前沿发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Data-driven weather models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, yet progress has plateaued in recent years. This paper introduces a Mixture of Experts (MoWE) approach as a novel paradigm to overcome these limitations, not by creating a new forecaster, but by optimally combining the outputs of existing models. The MoWE model is trained with significantly lower computational resources than the individual experts. Our model employs a Vision Transformer-based gating network that dynamically learns to weight the contributions of multiple "expert" models at each grid point, conditioned on forecast lead time. This approach creates a synthesized deterministic forecast that is more accurate than any individual component in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, achieving up to a 10% lower RMSE than the best-performing AI weather model on a 2-day forecast horizon, significantly outperforming individual experts as well as a simple average across experts. This work presents a computationally efficient and scalable strategy to push the state of the art in data-driven weather prediction by making the most out of leading high-quality forecast models.
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