arXiv:2509.10506cs.LGcs.CE2025-09被引 1

用注意力机制提升预测精准度,让销售预测更懂变化的市场。

AttnBoost: Retail Supply Chain Sales Insights via Gradient Boosting Perspective

  • 在每次迭代中动态调整特征重要性,聚焦促销、价格等关键因素。
  • 在真实零售数据上超越传统模型,误差降低12.3%且可解释性强。
  • 适合需要透明决策依据的供应链管理者和业务分析师使用。

零售供应链中的产品需求预测因特征噪声大、异构性强及消费者行为快速变化而极具挑战。尽管传统的梯度提升决策树(GBDT)在结构化数据上表现优异,但缺乏在条件变化时自适应识别并强调关键特征的能力。本文提出 AttnBoost,一种将特征级注意力机制融入提升过程的可解释学习框架,通过轻量级注意力模块在每轮提升中动态调整特征重要性,使模型聚焦于促销、定价和季节趋势等高影响力变量。我们在大规模零售销售数据集上评估了该方法,结果表明其在预测精度上优于标准机器学习与深度表格式模型,同时为供应链管理者提供可操作的洞察。消融实验证实注意力模块能有效缓解过拟合并提升可解释性。研究显示,注意力引导的提升方法是实现可解释且可扩展人工智能在现实预测应用中的有前景方向。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forecasting product demand in retail supply chains presents a complex challenge due to noisy, heterogeneous features and rapidly shifting consumer behavior. While traditional gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) offer strong predictive performance on structured data, they often lack adaptive mechanisms to identify and emphasize the most relevant features under changing conditions. In this work, we propose AttnBoost, an interpretable learning framework that integrates feature-level attention into the boosting process to enhance both predictive accuracy and explainability. Specifically, the model dynamically adjusts feature importance during each boosting round via a lightweight attention mechanism, allowing it to focus on high-impact variables such as promotions, pricing, and seasonal trends. We evaluate AttnBoost on a large-scale retail sales dataset and demonstrate that it outperforms standard machine learning and deep tabular models, while also providing actionable insights for supply chain managers. An ablation study confirms the utility of the attention module in mitigating overfitting and improving interpretability. Our results suggest that attention-guided boosting represents a promising direction for interpretable and scalable AI in real-world forecasting applications.

销售预测注意力机制可解释性供应链

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